I LOOKED THE WHOLE DAY AT THE CHARTS TO TRY AND UNDERSTAND WHAT THE IMMEDIATE OUTCOME OF BNF MAY BE, AND THIS IS THE BEST EXPLAINATION I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COME UP WITH. 1. THE SHORT IS VALID AS LONG AS BNF NOV STAYS BELOW 24490-505 ZONE. 2. I DREW PARALLELS TO TRY AND SEE WHAT BNF IS TRYING TO DO..... IT NOW APPEARS TO ME THAT THE BREAK OF 1 PARALELL WILL CORRECT TO THE LOWER T/L OF THE 2ND PARALLEL .... AND A BREAK OF THE 2ND PARALLEL WILL CORRECT TO THE LOWER T/L OF THE 3RD PARALLEL. 3. THE PREVIOUS GAP UP ZONE ALSO CO-INCIDES WITH MY THEORY ..... HENCE THE PREVIOUS GAP UP NOW BECOMES A SUPPORT, UNLESS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH VERY HEAVY VOLUMES 4. MOST INDICATORS ARE POINTING DOWNWARDS..... WHICH GIVES WEIGHT TO THE IDEA 5. 20 EMA ON A DAILY BASIS IS AT APPRXX 23600 APPRXX...... THIS TOO SUPPORTS THE TARGET OF APPRXX 24500-600 ZONE AS PER THE PARALLELS 6. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN STUDIES TO SEE THE BEST OUTCOME. I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU ALL ON ANY THEORIES/ IDEAS YOU MAY BE ABLE TO COME UP WITH
You analysis looks reasonable. But 8 out of 10 times, bears are failing in the short term. It is better to wait and make only long entries above 24800. Otherwise just watch where it takes support and make long entry at appropriate level. It is simply in congestion zone. Bulls might need some time to cross the resistance. As simple as that.
deepgups
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@theperumal, I agree with ur view.... But a good trader is one who can play the market both sides.... Ofcourse one has to take Limited Risks
theperumal
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@deepgups, Agreed. As long as we are hedged, no problem. By the way, most people consider long straddle as a hedge. It has to be used properly at right time. This part is just for the benefit of other viewers.