ביטקויןלונג
advanced technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD D1)
1. Elliott Wave Theory: Corrective and Impulsive Structures
Primary Wave Count (5-Wave Impulse & Correction)
The chart presents the framework of Elliott Wave Theory with an emphasis on wave formations:
Wave 1 to 5 (M): The larger impulsive move. The completion of Wave 5 (M), peaking at $73,805, denotes the end of a bullish cycle. This wave culminates the major impulsive structure in a broader trend.
Corrective Waves (A-B-C): After the peak of Wave 5 (M), a complex corrective structure is seen developing as (A)(B)(C), illustrating a standard zigzag correction that brings price action lower. This is a classic retracement following a 5-wave impulsive move.
Internal Wave Count: Sub-Degree Structure
The internal waves of the Elliott cycle are labeled within the larger wave count. For example:
The 3rd wave of the overall impulse consists of its own smaller five-wave structure, adhering to the Elliott principle of waves within waves.
The chart also shows lower-degree corrective waves marked as (B) and (A), which create a fractal pattern and signify continuation patterns within larger wave sequences.
2. Wyckoff Methodology: Distribution, Accumulation, and Phase Analysis
Distribution Phase (BC Distribution)
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: This marks a major area of price rejection, indicating that the market is moving into a distribution phase where supply exceeds demand. The chart labels this around the $73,805 area, indicating that this zone could be a potential market top formed through distribution.
Phase B and C (Wyckoff Phases)
The chart divides the market cycle into several phases using Wyckoff logic:
Phase A: The Accumulation Phase, seen near the bottom of the chart, represents the phase where major buyers (composite operators) begin absorbing supply after a downtrend. The Automatic Rally (AR), Selling Climax (SC), and Secondary Test (ST) are visible as the market tests lows for support.
Phase B: Here we witness the Sign of Weakness (SOW) as institutions continue to test the range’s low, looking for liquidity to complete the phase. The Spring Test occurs when the price dips below key levels to grab liquidity before bouncing higher.
Phase C: This phase indicates a reaccumulation or final absorption by large market participants. The Last Point of Support (LPS) marks a point where significant buying interest occurs before moving higher.
Phase D (Mark-Up Phase)
Following the Spring in Phase B, the price initiates a bullish trend, confirming the completion of accumulation. As the market moves upward, it re-enters a Mark-Up phase, indicating that demand is now stronger than supply, and higher prices are anticipated. The chart shows this move in sync with the Elliott Wave count (wave (3) and (5)).
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Institutional Trading Patterns
Break of Structure (BOS)
BOS or Break of Structure is highlighted several times, particularly during the shift from bearish to bullish trends. BOS is a pivotal concept in SMC, marking where institutional traders recognize a shift in market structure.
For instance, the break from (B) to (A) represents a significant structural change, confirming that large entities have shifted sentiment.
Liquidity Grabs and Stop Hunts
SOW in Phase B and Spring: These concepts are indicative of liquidity grabs, where institutional players seek to force weak hands out of the market by pushing the price below key support levels (e.g., AR Accumulation) to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing the price direction. This manipulative action is common in ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles.
Order Blocks and Demand Zones
The chart shows key Bullish Order Blocks, particularly near the lows of the price action, signaling where institutions place significant buy orders to protect long positions. The areas marked as AR Distribution and Support Lines indicate zones where buyers are expected to step in again should the price retrace.
4. Harmonic Patterns and Fibonacci Levels
Harmonic Structures
The chart illustrates several harmonic patterns, particularly in the corrective waves:
The X-A-B-C-D pattern follows harmonic principles, where X represents the peak, and A-B-C follows the typical retracement sequences.
0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels are crucial retracement areas, often used by traders to anticipate pullbacks. For instance, the level 0.5 at $58,348 is shown as a potential retracement target in wave 2 of the larger corrective structure.
5. Price Projection and Key Levels
Price Projection Using Elliott Waves
Wave (5) Projection: Based on Elliott Wave principles, the price projection for the next impulse (wave (5)) extends above $92,000, potentially completing the larger bullish cycle. This projection aligns with the harmonic pattern drawn across the chart.
Wave 4 Correction: The chart expects a correction down to Wave 4, retracing to critical support zones such as AR Accumulation or Support Line AR Distribution, before starting the next upward leg.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance at BC Distribution: Around $73,000-$75,000, this level is where price historically faced significant rejection. A break of this level would confirm bullish continuation.
Support Line AR Distribution: Around $58,000-$60,000, this is a key level that the market may revisit before resuming its upward trend.
Invalidation Points
Wave 1 Invalidation: The chart points out that for the larger Wave 1 in (D) to remain valid, the price must not drop below specific levels, marking areas where the Elliott Wave count would need reevaluation if breached. An invalidation would signal that the wave count must be restructured.
6. Conclusion: BTCUSD Forecast
The BTCUSD chart meticulously integrates Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff Methodology, and Smart Money Concepts, offering a layered analysis of Bitcoin’s market structure. It projects a potential bullish scenario with price action targeting $92,000 in the final wave of the current cycle, provided key support levels hold. Institutional trading behaviors, as reflected by BOS and liquidity grabs, are expected to drive the market into a final Mark-Up phase after current consolidation, before a more significant correction ensues.
Primary Wave Count (5-Wave Impulse & Correction)
The chart presents the framework of Elliott Wave Theory with an emphasis on wave formations:
Wave 1 to 5 (M): The larger impulsive move. The completion of Wave 5 (M), peaking at $73,805, denotes the end of a bullish cycle. This wave culminates the major impulsive structure in a broader trend.
Corrective Waves (A-B-C): After the peak of Wave 5 (M), a complex corrective structure is seen developing as (A)(B)(C), illustrating a standard zigzag correction that brings price action lower. This is a classic retracement following a 5-wave impulsive move.
Internal Wave Count: Sub-Degree Structure
The internal waves of the Elliott cycle are labeled within the larger wave count. For example:
The 3rd wave of the overall impulse consists of its own smaller five-wave structure, adhering to the Elliott principle of waves within waves.
The chart also shows lower-degree corrective waves marked as (B) and (A), which create a fractal pattern and signify continuation patterns within larger wave sequences.
2. Wyckoff Methodology: Distribution, Accumulation, and Phase Analysis
Distribution Phase (BC Distribution)
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: This marks a major area of price rejection, indicating that the market is moving into a distribution phase where supply exceeds demand. The chart labels this around the $73,805 area, indicating that this zone could be a potential market top formed through distribution.
Phase B and C (Wyckoff Phases)
The chart divides the market cycle into several phases using Wyckoff logic:
Phase A: The Accumulation Phase, seen near the bottom of the chart, represents the phase where major buyers (composite operators) begin absorbing supply after a downtrend. The Automatic Rally (AR), Selling Climax (SC), and Secondary Test (ST) are visible as the market tests lows for support.
Phase B: Here we witness the Sign of Weakness (SOW) as institutions continue to test the range’s low, looking for liquidity to complete the phase. The Spring Test occurs when the price dips below key levels to grab liquidity before bouncing higher.
Phase C: This phase indicates a reaccumulation or final absorption by large market participants. The Last Point of Support (LPS) marks a point where significant buying interest occurs before moving higher.
Phase D (Mark-Up Phase)
Following the Spring in Phase B, the price initiates a bullish trend, confirming the completion of accumulation. As the market moves upward, it re-enters a Mark-Up phase, indicating that demand is now stronger than supply, and higher prices are anticipated. The chart shows this move in sync with the Elliott Wave count (wave (3) and (5)).
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Institutional Trading Patterns
Break of Structure (BOS)
BOS or Break of Structure is highlighted several times, particularly during the shift from bearish to bullish trends. BOS is a pivotal concept in SMC, marking where institutional traders recognize a shift in market structure.
For instance, the break from (B) to (A) represents a significant structural change, confirming that large entities have shifted sentiment.
Liquidity Grabs and Stop Hunts
SOW in Phase B and Spring: These concepts are indicative of liquidity grabs, where institutional players seek to force weak hands out of the market by pushing the price below key support levels (e.g., AR Accumulation) to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing the price direction. This manipulative action is common in ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles.
Order Blocks and Demand Zones
The chart shows key Bullish Order Blocks, particularly near the lows of the price action, signaling where institutions place significant buy orders to protect long positions. The areas marked as AR Distribution and Support Lines indicate zones where buyers are expected to step in again should the price retrace.
4. Harmonic Patterns and Fibonacci Levels
Harmonic Structures
The chart illustrates several harmonic patterns, particularly in the corrective waves:
The X-A-B-C-D pattern follows harmonic principles, where X represents the peak, and A-B-C follows the typical retracement sequences.
0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels are crucial retracement areas, often used by traders to anticipate pullbacks. For instance, the level 0.5 at $58,348 is shown as a potential retracement target in wave 2 of the larger corrective structure.
5. Price Projection and Key Levels
Price Projection Using Elliott Waves
Wave (5) Projection: Based on Elliott Wave principles, the price projection for the next impulse (wave (5)) extends above $92,000, potentially completing the larger bullish cycle. This projection aligns with the harmonic pattern drawn across the chart.
Wave 4 Correction: The chart expects a correction down to Wave 4, retracing to critical support zones such as AR Accumulation or Support Line AR Distribution, before starting the next upward leg.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance at BC Distribution: Around $73,000-$75,000, this level is where price historically faced significant rejection. A break of this level would confirm bullish continuation.
Support Line AR Distribution: Around $58,000-$60,000, this is a key level that the market may revisit before resuming its upward trend.
Invalidation Points
Wave 1 Invalidation: The chart points out that for the larger Wave 1 in (D) to remain valid, the price must not drop below specific levels, marking areas where the Elliott Wave count would need reevaluation if breached. An invalidation would signal that the wave count must be restructured.
6. Conclusion: BTCUSD Forecast
The BTCUSD chart meticulously integrates Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff Methodology, and Smart Money Concepts, offering a layered analysis of Bitcoin’s market structure. It projects a potential bullish scenario with price action targeting $92,000 in the final wave of the current cycle, provided key support levels hold. Institutional trading behaviors, as reflected by BOS and liquidity grabs, are expected to drive the market into a final Mark-Up phase after current consolidation, before a more significant correction ensues.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.