I am bullish in the short term - 4 Hour chart but neutral to bearish on the long term - 1 Day chart. My Daily analysis is here :
The scenario that presents itself now is buying with a view of selling at the top of a potential range, due to the break of the BTC bullish trend.
BTC price has rebounded with RSI also off lows. The overall bullish trend was technically broken (daily chart above) so buying with careful money management and good stop losses can occur now. Depending on your risk strategy one could buy right now, or wait for the 10 and 20 day moving averages to cross in a bullish direction (up) for a buy signal. Also if a break of the resistance (red line) at 13000 occurs, this could lead to a further buy signal.
My stop loss areas of interest are 11000 and 9000. My profit taking area is 17000. Longer term, when the profit taking area comes into focus I will re-evaluate based also on fundamentals. The fundamentals of bitcoin are improving. Average confirmation had a major spike but has returned to lower levels and the unconfirmed transactions continue to decline (<100 000). This shows a shift from selling to buying again. Coupled with the technical supports, lows may have formed and price may start heading up again.
הערה
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Some cautious buying could occur at these levels with tight stops, below 10000 or 9000. Also buying with other signals such as the Moving Average crossover.
הערה
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Fundamentals are improving with falling network congestion. I've updated my analysis with buying recommendations:
Nice! Well explained possible scenarios. It does help me to learn - watching your process.
-I was wondering : if you have time, since you have the "Pro" label, can you explain the process of calculating the profit. The are websites and formulas to calculate, but I'm missing the process. I did search quit a bit, but it's still a big blur. For an example, if you buy Bitcoin at 10600 and you sell it at 13000, what is the % of profit ? when you buy just a portion of a Bitcoin, what do you do?
-If it's a currency with decimals, is it the same way to calculate.
If you can't explain, no problemo.
Quadricolor
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@ZerahHarez, No problem. With the numbers you gave me I do the following; Sell - buy = profit (loss). Profit (loss) / purchase price equals % profit (x 100). So for example, 13000 - 10600 = 2400 then 2400 / 10600 = 0.2264 then x 100 = 22.64%
Quadricolor
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A portion say 0.1 BTC instead of 1 BTC, the percentage is still the same. Just take your percent and multiply by your investment, say £100 000 x 22.64% = £22640 profit ( or raw calculation: £100 000 x 0.2264)
ZerahHarez
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@Quadricolor, Thanks! I will practice. I want to be able to monitor the potential profit targets in conjonction with S & R.
Asma7assan
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please tell me BTC is going down? :/
Quadricolor
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@AsmaHassan, Right now, in the short term it looks like the bottom has been reached, so I expect it to start moving upwards to the 17000 area. When it gets close to this area I will be able to get an idea if it will continue moving up. The long term picture shows that 17000 to 20000 might be the long term highs as, technically, the long term upwards trend has been broken. So to summarise, in the short and medium term I think BTC is reaching bottom levels and will start finding strength and moving up from here. In the longer term, the price might move sideways, in a range.
Quadricolor
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@AsmaHassan, If you are looking to sell, now is the time to hold on, if you want to buy now is the time to do so. Here is my latest analysis:
Asma7assan
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@Quadricolor, I'm hodling thanks for tagging me here....however do u not think it will tank to 8-9k?
Quadricolor
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@AsmaHassan, Yes, it is possible, that is why I have tight stops. It could even tank to $5000! You never know what can happen, so you must always protect with good stops deduced from a well planned money management system. Even though it could tank to 8000, I don't think it will, for the very reasons I've spelled out above. I think the odds of further falls have reduced to the point where some purchases can take place, if stops are activated then another opportunity will come soon at similar levels. Support is forming slowly at these regions, so even if there is a break to 9000, I think it will start having rebounds along these support areas as tension reduces across the transactional volumes and as negative news decreases.
-I was wondering : if you have time, since you have the "Pro" label, can you explain the process of calculating the profit. The are websites and formulas to calculate, but I'm missing the process. I did search quit a bit, but it's still a big blur. For an example, if you buy Bitcoin at 10600 and you sell it at 13000, what is the % of profit ? when you buy just a portion of a Bitcoin, what do you do?
-If it's a currency with decimals, is it the same way to calculate.
If you can't explain, no problemo.