Well, my first predictions went well from the last post and the first profit target was exceeded at 2600 Fit Ret, so now it might be a bat at 2760 where D snaps onto the next Fibonacci Retracement.
Not sure if I have the dimensions right but somethings going on. BITFINEX:BTCUSD
I support this with the big W on MACD at the 1hr scale. After reaching D we are looking at a correction down to regulate the overbought situation possibly down to the last Fibonacci Retracement levels maybe at 2420-40 or 2600 or 2760 which is also clear from the big M on the MACD 1day chart.
Of course there's a third option which is that D is now and then we will see this system close and the correction down coming now-ish but I doubt that. Strong support at 2420-40 and 2100.
Wildest possible option is that we are looking at a big bearish butterfly in which case the target for D is 3150 !!!
See this:
The past post:
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Scaryyyyyy:
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Its a full on war in the book - 2619.9 vs 2620.0 is the spread with volume - whoa!! breaking downwards now lets see how deep we go
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The Fibonacci Retracement is at 2609 so this is the war right now... lets see who wins. If it reverts then its a short down to last Fib Ret at least at 2501 thriller horror movie is on!
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Come on back up!!
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YESS MACD is turning 1min chart - buyers market, you want one, price just went up!! haha
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Oh oh here comes trouble!!
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phewww off we go it looks - still quite a battle in the order book but trades are going up with real volume
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Still not safe
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only a couple of red candles with some deep lows and we should be safe, lets go to 2650 real quick please
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ALERT - be ready to pull out:
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This might be the end - be very careful, as MACD went to sellers market on 15 and 30min now
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I've put the tail of the wing / D at 2609 which is Fib Ret .618 so somethings up -- just in case. But - we might still just be in the battle around this special attractor, so I'm keeping my long position for now!
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Get out!
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I've closed my position and waiting for 2609 to settle down - it can swing both ways which is a risk I dont want to take. Rather lock in my profit from the 100 points up from my opening at 2510. I can afford to wait and see what direction we are going - easy with a limit 20 points up and down.
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Updated the bat with much more precise XABCD intersects with actual hi/low candles and it turns out the little deviation from plan can still be kept inside the bat. If we go to 2612 I will jump back in Long.
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Poetic justice that it was a butterfly that made me jump there...
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Butterflies and Bat's the scary movie 2 HAHAHAH
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Here's why I think this system ends now - MACD is forming a massive M on the 15min chart and we dont have that many candles left towards D on the 2606 Fib Ret (.618) -- so we will run out of time before it reverses as M is bearish. Now there is a butterfly so this could be the start of the short... lets see ... waiting tick tack...
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come ooooonnnn just gives those red candles and get over with it
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There's 1015 coins at 2621 ... whaaat!! order book is looking bullish. 6 at 2622
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Suply side 0.8 at 2623... so I went long and hope for the best as I think this deal might just possibly be back in business
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off we goooooo
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Battle of 2606 was won in favor of long. I went long at 2621 because I have nerves of steel (hah, nah, just kidding...) and had a stop at 2600. I expect the target to be 2750ish but I still need to measure the correct dimensions of our big bad bat to say that precisely... :D the Fib Ret at 2760 is my current inspiration for that but lets see
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As seen above I was really nervous that 2606 would be the end of the system and that this Fib Ret would be passed. I thought it did and we would have seen 2760 but no, it did end and we now see the correction downwards
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2500 being tested already
עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג
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Though this might not have been harmonic the levels were good and I'm now long from 2440 after seeing this butterfly? and what not on RSI, MACD and a doji that got confirmed with a green candle.
My long isn't going to be changed until I see some specific patterns requiring action and I believe it should go to test 3000 with the usual S/R speed bumps on its way, so pay attention at those 2509, 2660 and 27-something
I didn't sleep since the bear trap. I was short and bleeding badly.
So, eventually I bought back and passed out...
Now I need to claw back my losses :-/
bernino
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@ionspiredfr, auuuuu! Yeah, I know the feeling. I go for long runs and listen to angry metal in those cases... hope you got on the bandwagon from 2440-20 ish - should be quite the cargo train going over next days or so I hope!!
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I felt this could go either way and was actually trading another system also: which in the end was right. The problem here was that D could be either at 2606 or at 2760... the market decided it should be at 2606...
KeisyC
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MMMM I dont understand, I am a newbie on this, does this means we will see it down? but how much down? like 2500?2400? even horrible 2300?
bernino
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@KeisyC, yep after this pattern looking like a bat is over - which it will be then for quite sure it will go down to test the support at 2501 and if breaking that then theres 2440-2390 and if it breaks that then further down to 2261 ish - each one of those with decreasing probability so I doubt we would see lower than that. From there we will rebounce quite fast up to test the 3000 peak that we are all waiting for what a ride we can expect!
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@KeisyC, so far it looks like 2400 but its still very early... anyway, I bought some more coins and also went long :-)
KeisyC
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@bernino, thank you for beeing so kind and tell us this :D
ionspiredfr
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I love your running commentary!
Just you were supporting the short team for a dip to fib 236 lol
Keep it up man, thanks
bernino
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@ionspiredfr, :D its the best show ever right now!!! scary scary intense!!! look at it thinnnnnning: thats with updated shape of the Bat ending at 2606 just to see if it fits
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@ionspiredfr, what an amaaaazing night it has been - scary stuff with the war at 2606 wauwwwwww! Anyway - off we go and I gotta do some other work - long until next Fib Ret at least, back on track to 2760
So, eventually I bought back and passed out...
Now I need to claw back my losses :-/