It's been a while again since I posted my last idea .
Since that idea is really a long term idea, which, even if I say so myself, is still pretty much spot on, I've decided to give you my thoughts on the shorter term.
We saw a good drop in price yesterday and a lot of people are calling doom again for BTC. However, the only thing we did (for now) is to test the bottom of the candle that started the move out of the last consolidation zone.
The previous time this happened, BTCUSD found support at that level, so my guess is that chances are high we are going to see that again. In general what happens in this type of chart pattern, is that bulls have "conquered" this level and they will be waiting for any price action going below it to buy it up. We saw the exact same thing happen the previous time.
Is that a guarantee? In trading there are no guarantees, and as much as I hate it, BTC price is still much correlated to the general market trend and more particular to the US Stock market (SPX) and USD. So, a lot will depend on how these numbers will evolve, BTC is not (yet) the hedging tool that most crypto adepts would like it to be.
Nevertheless, we did gain an important level in my humble opinion. If you look at my publications from June and April, you will see that I'm talking about that 9.2K key level that needed a break and close above to find support on it. We have broken above that level in July and price has been above it ever since, but it has not been tested as support yet. So, we could see a decline into that price level if stock markets would go down and USD value up.
So I guess that's not much of a prediction after all ... I have said 2 different things: BTC will find support at current levels, and BTC might go down to 9.2K, so what do I actually expect?
I expect BTC to find support at this level as said earlier, and trade within that triangle you see on the chart. Near the end of the triangle, we might see price break down rapidly and test the 9.2K level support, to then continue within that 9.2K - 14K range for some more time, as explained in the analysis I mentioned in the very beginning.
If you have made it till the end of this analysis, congrats and thanks for reading it all. Let me know what you think will happen in the comments below and open the discussion. If you liked this analysis, you know what to do ;)
if you check previous crashes below 20W MA price will not get back so fast. If 10150 can't hold and goes below 9200 level it might hold due to expectation of stimulus. But if the government lock down happens by October and markets focused on to the election then we will see below 9200 and might event touch 6000-6500 area until the US aid money is pumped together with realistic escape scenarios from CV19 based economic shutdowns via vaccinations etc.
BUT,
DXY rose to 94+. Gold and Silver crashed. US500 and US100 is not green. Yet BTC holds 10400+. Impressive. How? This might be based on the money laundry news recently.
There is support for sure. First it held 9800s 20WMA then rose to 11K and now holding on to 10550 area.
It really makes a statement from my perspective for long term. It is a long term risk not to have BTC. It is a short term risk to have BTC. 3x/10X potential BTC investment should be in. What do you think? What percentage of your total investment bankroll would you put to BTC and what percentage of that percentage would you buy from here or hold here?
Nico.Muselle
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@RhinoAlerts, I would say that you should only trade with money that you can afford to loose. Keeping that in mind, the percentage that you attribute to BTC of that money does not really matter. Personally I'm in it for the long run and I'm actually only looking for dips to add on to my BTC position. You can probably see from the different analysis that I posted, that I'm not a short term trader, most of my charts are on the weekly/monthly time frames and in the long term I am pretty bullish on bitcoin.
RhinoAlerts
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@Nico.Muselle, Bsaed on lengthening phases theory on regression areas BTC can move between 6K-14K. Even if you are long you should consider accumulating. If you are long and you are only betting the amount you can lose does not state any logical explanation to a bankroll strategy. It is basically gambling. What sets aside traders/investors from gamblers is traders manage risks. The risk of BTC going into 6-7K cannot be avoided. Therefor. my point is: Even the money you can afford to lose can help you gain more exposure to potential upsides in the future by accumlating more when the short term prices help you to do so. I would say 10X would be your amount you can lose then 4X is what you should put at the moment to avoid the risk of not having BTC. Then if it goes to 14K buy more. If it goes to 7K buy more. Yes if it goes to 14K you will lose some but in the long run acting based on strategy will help you gain more.
Nico.Muselle
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@RhinoAlerts, hye, thanks for your comment again. I totally agree with you, if you take a look at the analysis below, that is exactly my point. I'm only accumulating on the "local" dips as in the long term I foresee a very bullish bitcoin ...
UnknownUnicorn1430324
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Nice and clean idea :)
As long as we hold this, this could be support for now. There may be wicks below to capitulate on, but as long as the closes stay inside that triangle.
Nico.Muselle
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@Crypt0maniak, it looks indeed that we will find (at least temporary) support here. What will happen after that is anyone's guess, and even though I'm a long term bull, the support at 9.2k hasn't been really tested yet and I think it would be good that we do test it for the long term health of BTC.
BUT,
DXY rose to 94+. Gold and Silver crashed. US500 and US100 is not green. Yet BTC holds 10400+. Impressive. How? This might be based on the money laundry news recently.
There is support for sure. First it held 9800s 20WMA then rose to 11K and now holding on to 10550 area.
It really makes a statement from my perspective for long term. It is a long term risk not to have BTC. It is a short term risk to have BTC. 3x/10X potential BTC investment should be in. What do you think? What percentage of your total investment bankroll would you put to BTC and what percentage of that percentage would you buy from here or hold here?