Bitcoin shows extreme volatility after hitting a low slightly above 25 000 USD and then erasing a loss while bouncing above 31 000 USD. The recent price action may leave many market participants perplexed and wondering whether the bottom is in and if the trend reverses to the upside. However, we stay adamant in our bearish notion and expect the price to give up its gains soon. Indeed, in our opinion, the recent price action represents “a dead cat bounce” rather than any significant change in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Therefore, we consider the current valuation of BTCUSD as quite attractive for short-position (re)entry. Accordingly, our price target stays at 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01 The price of BTC retraced towards its 10-day simple moving average; however, not entirely, which leaves some room for more upside in BTC. Though, in our opinion, the bearish trend of a higher degree remains intact.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is in the oversold area; if it manages to reverse to the upside and penetrate 30 points, then the price of BTCUSD might follow suit and bounce even higher towards the 33k-35k USD price tag (before falling to a new low). Stochastic points to the upside, which is bullish; however, it still oscillates in the lower zone. MACD, DM+, and DM- stay bearish. ADX shows peaking conditions or a very powerful downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish but leaves room for a little bit more bounce in the price of BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX started its growth just recently, suggesting this is not the late stage of the bear market. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.