From time to time, October become DXY reversal. From historical data : October '12 : USD down sharply from Aug and perform channel down, but it break at mid October gain 2% bullish, and continue to November. October '13 : USD down perform symetrical channel down, break at week III October and gain 2.32% Bullish October '14 : USD in good channel up and Gain 3.63% Bullish October '15 : After hit support at mid October, USD perform Channel up and gain 4.5% bullish. This channel up continue to November Ocrober '16 : Symetrical triangle break up at October, perform channel up and gain 4.10% Bullish. This channel break as correction at November week I, And continue again to perform bullish October 2017 : ????
With this cycle, if this October USD repeat that data : EURUSD : Down GBPUSD : Down USDJPY : UP USDCHF : Up USDCAD : UP USDCHF : Up AUDUSD : Down NZDUSD : Down
thanks Dian for sharing this valuable insight with us. your charts made me imagine something:
the dollar goes up, and then the fed meeting comes up in December , where it has to raise interest rate ... but what can they do?! the dollar is already shooting up...
so they raise interest rate .. and the dollar uptrend goes crazy, and the stock market latter go crazy down too.
this scenario is aligned with my different forecasts.
AzrulAzir
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@lionos, interest rumor spread,, and smart investor already try to enter low. in many case october become reversal for next 4 month. So bullish still continue and change almost whole game in forex. To rise stocks, maybe FED will start tapering new QE.
drsguy437
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Awesome analysis! The COT data also shows the commercials the most bullish they have been since 2014 when the dollar had a strong rally for the rest of that year. Waiting for a trend change confirmation then will go short the Euro.
the dollar goes up, and then the fed meeting comes up in December , where it has to raise interest rate ... but what can they do?! the dollar is already shooting up...
so they raise interest rate .. and the dollar uptrend goes crazy, and the stock market latter go crazy down too.
this scenario is aligned with my different forecasts.