EUR/JPY Price Analysis:155-165
STRATEGY STRONG BUY
EUR/JPY climbs sharply to 2023 past 149.00
The underlying strong upside momentum in the cross appears unchallenged for the time being. Against that, the continuation of the upward bias should challenge the key 150.00 barrier in the relatively short term.
So far, further upside looks favoured while the cross trades above the 200-day SMA, today at 142.43.
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less than Estimated
Japanese Shares Jump After BOJ Decision
Japanese Yen Weakens After BOJ Decision
Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tweaks Forward Guidance
Tokyo Core Inflation Accelerates in April
Japan Retail Sales Grow More than Expected
Japan Industrial Output Growth Tops Estimates
Japan Jobless Rate Rises to 14-Month High
Japan Leading Economic Index Revised Upward
Japan Coincident Index Revised Downward
BIG PICTURE BEARISH
BoJ not changing policy, intensified interest rate differential game
Japan is still a basket case
Japan inflation at multi-year highs, while BoJ stuck in denial
BoJ still unlikely to change course
BoJ keeps to the dovish script
FX intervention unlikely to prevent yen weakness
The BoJ cannot defend the yen and is unlikely to want to
Increasing divergence between a dovish BoJ and tighter Fed monetary policy
BoJ intervention unlikely to halt yen’s slide
Only intervention from Japanese officials can relieve the yen
BIG PICTURE BULLISH
The Bank of Japan can add to the yen’s appeal
The likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains
Yen to outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing
Further policy adjustments from the BoJ
BoJ will review the side effects of its ultra-loose monetary policy
BoJ's policy tweak consistent with and supportive of Yen outperformance
A change at the helm of the BoJ puts JPY in pole position for 2023
Japan's economy and monetary policy to remain reasonably steady going forward
Yen seen as particularly sensitive to any swings in growth and monetary policy trends
BoJ reluctance to ease may put the yen on top
EUR/JPY climbs sharply to 2023 past 149.00
The underlying strong upside momentum in the cross appears unchallenged for the time being. Against that, the continuation of the upward bias should challenge the key 150.00 barrier in the relatively short term.
So far, further upside looks favoured while the cross trades above the 200-day SMA, today at 142.43.
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less than Estimated
Japanese Shares Jump After BOJ Decision
Japanese Yen Weakens After BOJ Decision
Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tweaks Forward Guidance
Tokyo Core Inflation Accelerates in April
Japan Retail Sales Grow More than Expected
Japan Industrial Output Growth Tops Estimates
Japan Jobless Rate Rises to 14-Month High
Japan Leading Economic Index Revised Upward
Japan Coincident Index Revised Downward
BIG PICTURE BEARISH
BoJ not changing policy, intensified interest rate differential game
Japan is still a basket case
Japan inflation at multi-year highs, while BoJ stuck in denial
BoJ still unlikely to change course
BoJ keeps to the dovish script
FX intervention unlikely to prevent yen weakness
The BoJ cannot defend the yen and is unlikely to want to
Increasing divergence between a dovish BoJ and tighter Fed monetary policy
BoJ intervention unlikely to halt yen’s slide
Only intervention from Japanese officials can relieve the yen
BIG PICTURE BULLISH
The Bank of Japan can add to the yen’s appeal
The likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains
Yen to outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing
Further policy adjustments from the BoJ
BoJ will review the side effects of its ultra-loose monetary policy
BoJ's policy tweak consistent with and supportive of Yen outperformance
A change at the helm of the BoJ puts JPY in pole position for 2023
Japan's economy and monetary policy to remain reasonably steady going forward
Yen seen as particularly sensitive to any swings in growth and monetary policy trends
BoJ reluctance to ease may put the yen on top
הערה
EUR/JPY seems to have met some initial contention around the 147.00 zone so far this week (low May 4).The strong downside seen in the last sessions appears to have dented the bullish outlook. Against that backdrop, the ongoing correction carries the potential to extend to the weekly low at 146.30 (April 25), where bears are expected to meet decent support.
הערה
It is a relatively busy week for the Japanese Yen. On Monday, finalized services PMI numbers will draw interest ahead of household spending figures on Tuesday.Barring a revision to prelim service PMI numbers, household spending numbers should have more impact.
הערה
It’s a quieter week for the EUR.German industrial production and inflation figures will be in focus on Monday and Wednesday. While the production numbers will influence, revisions to prelim inflation numbers will likely have more impact.
Finalized inflation numbers from France and Spain wrap up the week on Friday.
With economic indicators on the light side, investors should track ECB commentary. ECB President Lagarde (Thurs), ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane (Mon/Tues) and ECB Executive Board Members Isabel Schnabel (Tues/Thurs), and Luis de Guindos (Thurs/Fri) are on the calendar to speak this week.
הערה
Ueda leaves everything unchanged“What he had to say was in no way positive for JPY, as he underlined that he would continue his predecessor’s ultra-expansionary monetary policy. The indicator of this is the yield curve control (YCC) which would probably be the first element to change in a possible exit scenario. However, Ueda rejected this kind of change. In other words: everything remains unchanged.”
“Tthe Yen is only likely to appreciate long-term if there is this early move away from current monetary policy. Otherwise, it will mean: If the BoJ waits for too long, the Yen might easily suffer despite increased (real) yields. Or inflation eases back below the BoJ’s target level (2%). At that point we would be back to square one, which means a move away from the ultra-expansionary monetary policy would be unlikely. Short, medium and long-term.”
“Anyone who has already read the IMF’s latest "World Economic Outlook" and who follows its view might come to the conclusion that after the current inflation shock has worn off real yields in the rest of the world will be back at low levels. Followers of that view might not be excessively JPY-pessimistic, as the real yield disadvantage of the Yen would be reasonably moderate in that case.”
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.