US 100 Fact VS Fiction Trading; How We Called The Move..
So I recently called the US100 via the skilling ticker short in various posts, streams and videos aswell as other global index and futures markets. This was just before the recent enormous fall which we can reflect on;
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
הערה
Anticipating further falls in the market to long term key PA zones.הערה
Great idea now to lock in gains via trailing stop and/or total exit + Entry on pops back up.הערה
Holding off major longs into Monday.הערה
Use the weekend to plan and check over entries for new longs and exits for shorts taken, if you are investor/long term swing trading / locking in gains.הערה
No news monday. Looking ahead in the week for extended moves.הערה
Larger push needed for new re shorts.הערה
Still needing a higher move RE re entry.הערה
Look at second level of 1HR / 4hr resistance.הערה
Looking to scale re shortהערה
Ideally 15400.הערה
Hold off any longs.הערה
Preparing for minor long entries on big fall.הערה
Large rises need for RE short entries.הערה
Hold of any new longs until far lower for investor trend.הערה
Check over 12M chart for very long term fall case. It’s there..!הערה
No enormous news scheduled, latter stages likely to help.הערה
Re shorting still higher as per stream this AM.הערה
Maintaining short bias.הערה
Exit for gainsהערה
Still short, (reshort)הערה
Out of shorts. Hold off for new longs.הערה
Exit any longs and re short nearer 15100הערה
Shorts applicable similar to other indexesהערה
Back up to long term short entries.
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Posts Not financial advice.
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
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Posts Not financial advice.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
Free Pro Multi Asset Trading Guide:
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.