This could potentially turn into a stop hunt. As we see price created the illusion it was bouncing off support (see the blue arrow), and has now returned and broken below. 95% of retail traders are told to buy at support and sell at resistance.Guess where they are also told to place their stops? Right at the dollar sign. Liquidity the banks need to fill their enormous order. The cycle repeats and 95% of traders continue to fail.
עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג
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See the next post titled "LIVE STOP HUNTING RESULT" to see the winning result and further explanation.
I am not sure if I am understanding what you are saying. In this situation I would have been inclined to place a short trade at 0.63, 12 Nov 05:00, reason being the support level had been hit several times before and then eventually broken through at 12 Nov 02:00. In my mind that support level is now a resistance level as we have closed a candle below. So my bet would be that the market will go down lower however I am not sure by how much. I am not sure where the logic is in you thinking that retail traders will buy at the blue arrow. The market has just gone below the support level and re-surfaced above the level, personally at this point I would not be confident in the market rising, and I would not make the trade to go long as it is already a significant distance from the support level at the blue arrow. Retail traders are taught to buy at the support level, not above it where the blue arrow is.
joebrownFX
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@freddie1996, I get what you mean about that big drastic candle that seems to break support, but people are trained that sup/res are zones not lines so it is still valid. Also people like candlestick patterns at support and resistance (engulfing, morning evening star etc) as signs of reversal so you never truly get in right on the zone. I'm not saying buy at the blue arrow that's a byproduct because people bought at the "support" zone maybe on a lower time-frame for tighter entry, hence why price rose. Also people experience fear of missing out and see the bullish candles so they join in which then creates the small "bounce" from support. Hope that clears things up friend.