$SPX Daily 03/13/2014: Bearish rising wedge confirmed.

14 במרץ 2014

SPX has now closed 3 days below rising wedge pattern and came down today on 2.4 billion shares when about 2.1 billion is average volume.SPX closed fairly close to the lows of the day and this suggests that we will see lower lows from here. Perhaps not tomorrow, but before we see a significant bounce, I expect SPX will drop to the 50% Fib retrace, now at 1809. Once there, I'll have to reassess.

TRIN closed at 2.51 today and normally this indicates an extreme amount of selling and this will be difficult to duplicate going into a Friday. The RSI on the VIX 60min chart closed just shy of 70 so I would expect some follow through selling early tomorrow to push the VIX RSI to or above 70 and then either the market will stall there or push higher throughout the day. Of course, geopolitical events are likely to trump all of this so if there is more bad news out of Russia/Ukraine, then all bets are off.

Regardless of what happens on Friday and perhaps as a result of disconcerting events in the Ukraine, I do expect SPX to visit the 50% retrace level and perhaps the lower trend line on this chart at about 1800 before the decline ends. However, the market is likely to have a plan of its own as it is always out to make fools of those who attempt to divine its movements.

Be careful & GL