Global markets are tanking, and Tesla just lost a key long-term support this morning. The bulls need to recapture 415 today to prevent further downside. If they fail to do so, and particularly if we end the week below the long-term Green line support, the next major support is at the 100 day MA around 344.40. I'll be posting updates throughout the day so stay tuned, and best of luck.
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After hitting a low of 406.50 at the open, Tesla has now erased most of the day's losses. We're sitting at 412.37, but looking weak. This could be a technical bounce back to the Green line, which is now acting as resistance. Let's see what happens next...
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Looks like we're back at the LOD again after a rejection at th3 415 level. If we break the psychological support of 400, this will get ugly, fast...
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Tesla is holding up very well, and is trading like an index today. There appears to be zero panic on the minds of investors at the moment. Maybe they're right? We're approaching power hour, where I expect to see fireworks. Let's see if the bulls can defend their support.
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We're approaching the LOD with minutes left in the cash market. It doesn't look like the bulls will be able to get us back above critical support. Losses accelerating into the close...
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That's all folks! We closed near the LOD, and down over 4% on the day. Bulls were unable to get us back above the long-term Green line support, and so I expect further downside tomorrow. Market sentiment is deteriorating rapidly as we approach the election, and with little, if any, positive catalysts left, the risk is clearly to the downside. Tomorrow is the line in the sand, so I expect to see you guys at the main event. Thanks for your time today, and have a great night. Cheers, Michael.
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We're sitting around 406 pre-market off the back of overnight weakness on the majors. Mega-Tech earnings were fairly predictable (with the exception of Twitter), but the Nasdaq was down heavily around 1AM. We've since erased most of the overnight losses, and are now sitting down around 1% across the board.
The bulls have their work cut out for them today as they need to get us back above the Green line before the close of trade. Else they lose this level on the weekly, opening the door to further downside next week. The Green line resistance is now around 420, so absent a massive shift in global sentiment, the risk is to the downside. 400 will hold up as psychological support, but if it breaks we could see a revisit of the Sep 24th lows as early as today (351.30).
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Bulls just lost 400. This could get ugly, fast...
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We're now down over 4% on the day and losses accelerating here. Majors all rolling over.
We're now sitting at 392.26. Sep 24th low of 351.30 is now in play, and just below that, the 100 day MA at 348.46.
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We're now down over 5% on the day. Vix is back to a 39 handle and gaining momentum as the majors lose footing...
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Down 7%, and getting close to the Sep 24th lows now. 351.30 is the first target...
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Strong bounce here on the hourly as we approach the afternoon session. Let's see what happens next...
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Perfectly timed headlines of an easing in the terms of the FED's mainstreet lending program, saw the largest buy program of the day almost single handedly reverse the day's downtrend. Jay Powell is here to offer more debt as a solution, big shock...
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Dollar catching a bid here, and now back above 94, but Vix is looking soft, and is now back to low 38s.
Tesla holding above 389 after a solid bounce off the lows around 379...
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Gathering steam here as we march back toward the 400 level... Let's see if the bulls can get us there. if so, I expect a clear rejection, before a revisit of the lows...
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Bulls struggling to keep us above 390. Markets rolling over again...
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Approaching the LOD again. Sitting at 383 now, and looking weak on the hourly...
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Looks like a bear flag is forming on the 5 minute. Seems we're about to see a big move...
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That's all folks! We closed down around 5.50%. It was a bearish day, a bearish week, and a bearish month for risk assets across the board, and Tesla was no exception. We saw cross-asset liquidation globally like I haven't seen in a while. Bulls lost the key Green line support this week, and after several adamant attempts to get us back to the 400 level today, the bulls lost this key psychological support today as well.
I hope you guys enjoyed the week. Have a great weekend, and I look forward to seeing you all next week. It's election time! Cheers, Michael.
I've been closely watching TSLA price action. With it's gnarly theta, I haven't seen any high probability trades lately on either side. Of course on any given day someone could get "lucky", but this more or less sideways movement, besides yesterday's market dump day, ain't a profitable trade either way currently.
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@growerik, Makes sense. I think we'll need to break below 400 before we see a big move. Could be as early as today if we see continued cross-asset liquidation. I'm also not ruling out a potential intraday bounce, which would be perfectly in line with a break below the long-term support.
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, I don't know about you, but for me, I've actively traded TSLA this year. The intraday volatility will give you a headache. I'm taking a break focusing on my higher probability trades with lower risk through 11/06, unless an obvious signal presents itself. lol
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@growerik, That's a smart move man. Patience right now will pay off in the end. I'm focusing on the Vix right now, as I think another leg higher is not uncertain. Lol
@Hedge_Of_The_World, sold long call debit spread 9:48am. lol. A bird in the hand w/ elections tomorrow...
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@growerik, Good call bro, great timing, and excellent decision heading into tomorrow. This week is going to be a complete shit show imo. Vix looking resilient, though, and I'm not buying this global rally for a second. It looks like a massive bull trap. We'll see how things shape up as we approach the close...
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, Yes, I zoomed out for perspective. Ha. Then zoomed in for timing. I think sidelines are much smarter than FOMO today & tomorrow. I took a small hit on liquidating my VXX spread.