In my previous post on this pair about a contracting triangle (see Related Ideas; "QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #1: Contracting Triangle Wave 4"), I said that the contracting triangle was nearly finished with the wave E just about completed. That was before the FOMC announcement. Well, the FOMC did this Scenario a BIG favor and followed my Scenario PERFECTLY! Not only did it NOT break the upper TL, but it sent prices directly down to hit the lower TL EXACTLY. Almost as if I told it what to do! LOl! But we all know I don't have that kind of authority!
But what this price action tells me i that this contracting triangle was the wave 4 in my wave count and that now the wave 5 down should be or has already started.
So what I wanted to show here in the main chart is my wave count for what I see is the start of the wave 5 down. Right now, the wave (1) down is underway. It may end here at the B point line of the larger crab pattern (see 4Hr chart below) which also serves as a MAJOR SR Structure. Prices may bounce from here in a wave (2). I'm showing where there may be some points that prices may retrace in a wave (2).
4Hr Chart - Showing 2 POTENTIAL Patterns For Possible Wave 5 Targets
MY TRADE PLAN I'm already SHORT from the upper TL prior to the FOMC. I will wait until prices break and close below the B point line to take another SHORT position to add to my portfolio of SHORTS I am holding.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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This Gartley could be a profitable entry point in addition to your idea
EverythingForex
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Yeah, it's possible and the Gartley looks good for an entry to a possible wave (2) retrace back up. But I doubt I'll take any LONG positions now that wave 5 could be starting. I'll be looking for only SHORT opportunities for now.
kate25
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Hey Everything, my chart of course is long term, just an idea
EverythingForex
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Long-term. I agree that we are going to be seeing a MAJOR drop. But I think we will see a retest or near retest of the highs before we see it drop.