UJ Bears Break Andrew's Pitchfork, Time To Short??

8 בפבר׳

Based on the Aug. 5th Low (A), Aug. 15th High (B) & Sept. 16th Low (C) we are able to project an Up-trending Andrew's Pitchfork.

After price makes a Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio (61.8%) of the Pitchfork Range, price falls to the Previous High or Point of Interest finding support to then rise and stall out at the Linear Regression or True Trendline of the Pitchfork and is unable to sustain the Higher High to only fall again while this time breaking the Rising Support of the Pitckfork.

Price may continue to fall to the POI before finding support again @ the 148 - 149 range but we should expect price to retest the Break of Rising Support @ the 155 - 156 range.
-If support turns resistance and holds price, this will deliver great shorting opportunities to take down to the POI and potentially all the way to the Range Target of 139 - 142!

*If price ascends back into the Pitchfork range, price action is considered a False Breakout.

Fundamentally, so far Feb. has been a trying month for USD where we saw last Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change came in @ 143k ( 164k Decrease from last month @ 307k which was revised up from 256k) with only a .1% down tick in Unemployment to 4%.
This Week:

USD
Tues - Powell Speaks
Wed - Core CPI/CPI, Powell Testifies
Thus - Core PPI/PPI, Unemployment Claims
Fri - Core Retail Sales/Retails Sales

9 בפבר׳

הערה

Now not only are Pitchforks good for forecasting potential price movements while trending, they can also be used to verify potential price movements during a breakout when and if price reverses!

If we apply the Pitchfork starting at the Golden Ratio High on Nov. 15th (A), the Low testing the Previous High on Dec. 3rd (B) and the High falling from the Linear Regression on Jan. 10th (C), this will project a Down-trending Pitchfork that implies:
1) Mean Reversion to 149.55
2) Retest of Break of Main Pitchfork @ 155.65
-Bearish Volume accumulates and RSI stays below 50 after being OS
3) Retest of Broken Support Level for Trend Continuation - Price TBD

לפני 3 ימים

הערה

USDJPY has found support at the Point of Interest. Based on the High of the Near-Retest of the Pitchfork @ 154.797 to the Low at the POI @ 148.841, we can see that the Previous Low in the 151 - 151.3 Range serves as a good area for a potential Pullback area for some more Short Opportunities!

Using the Fibonacci tool, we can see this range gives us a favorable 38.2% Retracement level @ 151.116 landing right in the Pullback Range I'm looking for.

Price now trading under the 200 EMA makes Shorts a more favorable look.

לפני 3 ימים

הערה

Further strengthening the Short Bias on USDJPY is the Price Action occuring with DXY.

Here we can see it has formed a Double Bottom with a Bullish Divergence in the RSI.

Break of Confirmation at 106.746 will Validate the Pattern!