Oil is approaching an interesting juncture, after breaking the recent swing low, creating a reaction to the upside. I have shorted oil from between 42 and 41, and added on the way down, but recently covered when approaching the low volume support zone in light blue.
I have added a quarterly speed line, connecting 2015's Q2's high with 2016's Q1 low, which has acted as resistance before, rejecting price at the recent top, as well as speed lines for the recent up and down swing in the daily chart. If we look closely, we can detect that April 4th's bar, offers a nice resistance level to short against, which matches the speed line analysis I've conduced, and also, is favored by time at mode trend analysis. We're trading below the uptrend mode, and despite finding bulls at a low volume support zone, it could very well be a short squeeze rally, and probably short lived.
If price enters my sell zone (the red box from March 31st to April 14th), we could enter short (or add to shorts in the money) with a stop loss above the 38 handle, or more conservatively, above 41.5. Target is 21.70 but monitor the support levels below.
Good luck if taking this trade. Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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1h uptrend, and now consolidating below resistance. Let's monitor for short entry.
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Interesting reaction to resistance.
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A close above 39.85, and further time spent there would be instrumental for bulls. If it doesn't happen, the quarterly speedline might act as resistance and stop this rally.
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(Late to long, not safe to short, wait for a sign of weakness)
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Major resistance at 40.75, let's see how it evolves from here.
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Solid daily close, we have to monitor this one closely. I'm short usdcad and usdmxn, as we speak, and flat oil. Monitoring price action to go short when safe, or to reload longs if need be.
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New quarterly high is impressive...now we see some profit taking. We could attempt a short and risk a rally above today's open.
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If you took this one with me, well done!
"2 days ago Comment. New quarterly high is impressive...now we see some profit taking. We could attempt a short and risk a rally above today's open."
We broke the uptrend speed line, I'll place some limit orders to add on close.
I think you have a very strange idea about how an Elliott Wave count looks.
I'd reccomend checking the material by Glenn Neely if you're interested in learning it.
Even then, he mentions it's not viable to do EW analysis on oil.
ahmedfx
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will see
IvanLabrie
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What do you mean?
The count is not correct, it's not up to discussion if that's what you mean.
(I don't disagree that this might be a retracement in an uptrend)
We'll see.
pipizer
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I think he said will see Glenn Neely's material :P
IvanLabrie
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I wasn't sure, maybe it was a language barrier. My apologies if that's the case.
(thanks for the comment)
Nick_C_
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looks like a nice count to me
IvanLabrie
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:p
I_see_BTC
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Well, that was certainly a beautiful open for oil shorts! Congrats to those in position. You should perhaps schedule a vacation to Doha soon :-)
IvanLabrie
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Luckily, yeah.
I expected a bearish outcome for news, based on the charts and commercial traders positioning in CoT. (and the fact that Iran doesn't want a deal, and Arabia and Russia are at record output levels anyway, so cutting here, when they can't even produce faster haha...who are they kidding?)