PATH TO 2135 #3, MOMENT OF TRUTH
INTRODUCTION - This is the 02/05/24, 15-min bar, ultra-detailed daily binary, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. We've reached tipping point, while bulls still favored 51/49, a move under 2015 would make orange route here the favorite. Taking orange route here would kill any February break out.
DETAILS - If you play #2 again, link below in links section, price followed orange route in that post too, even more aggressively. So we've reached basically the only possible way for bulls to win this setup that has been built from 2001 on January 17th. In my humble opinion, bulls have to hit this chart perfect perfect to have a realistic chance of a February break out.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - If you play #2 again, link below in links section, price followed orange route in that post too, even more aggressively. So we've reached basically the only possible way for bulls to win this setup that has been built from 2001 on January 17th. In my humble opinion, bulls have to hit this chart perfect perfect to have a realistic chance of a February break out.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
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02/05, 9:45 AM ET, THE TWO BOXES ABOVE:a) in chart above: there two boxes
b) short term trend maps say price should hit one or the other
c) this move will "signal" the rest of the week
d) the orange route here is "mirror image" of the break out route
e) so the resolution to orange route would be 1950, and theoretically much much lower
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10:18 AM 2017.xx, value for this chart is next 24 hours.a) so ceiling is 2042 and floor is 1992
b) price does not have to "make a decision" until to night
c) but that decision will come before noon Tuesday
d) after that the zig zag in low vol (for either scenario) is not worth the time
e) any big move after this will come Sunday night
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11:48 AM now the moment of truth...a) bulls still under resistance line
b) in order to be on time for their target box near 2040 before noon on Tuesday...
c) bulls need to tag 2027 this afternoon with a close above 2023
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d) failing to tag 27 and close 23, would signal failure to hit first that boxe) this is really important bc this is the only way to "reset the trends" in time
f) in time for Sunday 02/11
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12:30 PM wrap upa) it's 2023.xx as I type, this is good for bulls
b) they have a chance of tagging 2027-28 soon
c) if they retrace to 2024 quickly and start to move back up
d) it's not impossible to close higher, bc they do have a setup for 2035-2042 close
e) but bulls did not follow through any of their setups overnight...
f) I don't know what to make of it
g) in any case, making 27-28 increas odds of making their target box on time
h) or even early
i) in this situation, that changes nothing becausewhile the floor rises, the ceiling also keeps falling
j) so more or less, price will fill out a "triangle looking shape" by end of Friday
k) with equilibrium at 2030
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l) bc of vol compression to end of this week m) it's going to be hard to catch more than 10 pts of vol in any session
n) AFTER bulls hit their box
o) hence, take the week off and recharge
p) again, lets wait until Friday to talk mumbers
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10:14 PM ET 2024.XX THIS POST HAS ENDEDa) something is not right
b) and I can not figure out yet
c) I just don't want any one to get shocked by a flash crash
d) I don't see one, but it just wouldn't shock me for it happen here
e) we will know a lot more in just a few days
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10:30 PM This small drop from 28 to 23 now 24.20...a) it's sooo wrong for this spot that it shouldn't happen
b) it's sooo intentionally bearish that we have to sit back and watch it first
c) so becareful
d) while I think it will end up going sideways anyway...
e) it just wouldn't shock me if this all of a sudden drops to under 2015
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10:49 PM ET so the floor is 1992 if bears want to move there...a) I think they are going to try
b) I am not going to be up for this
c) but levels are obvious if they push down:
d) 2015, 2008, 2001 1992
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2/6, 12:01 AM 2026.XX a) so I want to say the danger is over
b) but I can't even say that now
c) I'm going to bed now
d) the bearish intermediate regressions are doing a "hard turn" down look
e) so it takes a "stronger hard turn up by price action to correct it"
f) price is not showing any thing interest in preventing a crash scenario
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2/6 9:05 AM ET, bulls still have not hit that boxa) but they have a bit of time
b) they are "barely out of danger"
c) there's even more vol compression now, so outcomes to Sunday even tighter:
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d) I keep saying there's no trade right now bc there's no big move over 10 pts per sessione) and if there is IT WILL REVERSE THE OTHER WAY IMMEDIATELY
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9:27 AM ET 2029.XX bulls going for that box but lack convictiona) the top of that box is 43
b) the bottom of that box is 33
c) bulls need to hit 38-43 to prove they have support and push ceiling up
d) bc the turn ceiling is right 35-36
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9:56 AM ET 31.95... a) not sure this will be a fast one
b) let's call it 32 and spike ceiling is 42
c) but I'm not sure bulls have what it takes to get to 42 at least quickly
d) so if they zig zag up
e) it can literally take the rest of trading session to get to 42
f) but if they do, THAT'S A BIG DEAL
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110:57 PM ET 2036.XX, barely scratched 2038 before turninga) I don't know if bulls have anything left for this run
b) they got 1-2 point past turn ceiling, but did not push into spike ceiling which is 42
c) but they did hit the box as required
d) so they are on trend to complete this move bullishly
e) whether or not they make one more push for 40+ next move is down
f) 2022 off top of my head
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11:07 AM 36.33, this retrace timinga) NY close if early
b) 10 pm if on time
c) 4 am if late
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11:40 PM TUESDAY WRAP UPa) so having hit that box
b) if bulls can do any more, THEN GREAT
c) if they can't then the rest of this week now looks like this:
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d) so bulls have managed to push up weekly ceiling e) this means while this map is current right now...
f) and the AM-PM trend should hold..
g) bulls can shift the whole curve up more but we will see
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h) so like this and that's a wrap for today:הערה
FEBRUARY 6TH, 11:52 AM ET, WE NEED A NEW DRAFT!!a) bc gold route is possible:
b) in chart above there are 3 routes
c) light blue is base case RIGHT THIS SECOND
d) if bulls can fight the retrace until NY close ...
e) dark blue would be base case
f) that with 16 hours to go gold route can be favorite by WED AM:
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12:09 PM ET, 2036.XX THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE'S #4:
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02/07 11:21 PM ET so back to this post while I work on this spike upa) it looks like big move next week
b) probably get shot down at 2085-2100
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11:37 PM ET, SO:הערה
11:44 PM ET, for people that like numbers, and evidnence:הערה
a) I chose base 2 and 3 to begin with b) because you cant split 25 (meaning 100, 50, 25, stuck
c) instead, 96, 48, 24, 12, 6, 3, etc.. (easier)
d) plus 96 comes before 100, that is actually not insignificant
e) so whats so different about this time?
f) this time you have 'mathematically perfect set of numbers
g) so above all these trends need to "slope up" AT THE SAME TIME for this push
h) other wise you get zig zag for GOD KNOWS HOW LONG
i) and we are about to hit that moment THIS SUNDAY
j so what is preventing this?
k) EVERYTHING 8 DAYS AND SHORTER
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l) now before I break down the 8 day trend, even if we get this move...m) it wont happen fast enough to stick...
n) meaning either at 75, 85, 95, or 105 IT WILL GET SHOT DOWN
o) the first time it gets there
p) that's because WE TOO FAR DOWN from the 96-day way wave to turn it
q) that's why the orange wave will turn down...
r) that's ok, we still have half of February and first week of March
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02/08 12:00 AM ET, it's now Thursday in NY, so we have 2 days left to make this turn:a) in chart above
b) that's regression for those specfic trends
c) why only these?
d) BECAUSE EVERYTHING HAS BEEN READY, SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE
e) but not quite this close
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f) so why that hi-light? g) that is "the most likely route at this time"
h) (that changes all f.. time)
i) but the whole point is..
j) PRICE LEADS these trends...
k) so we need price to to turn the 1.5 BACK UP (it just turned down lat couple of hours)
l) and the 1.5-day will then PULL UP the 3-day, and then 6-day, and then 8-day
m) why 8 and not 9-day?
n) BC once the 8-day turn,the "uniform turniing" of these related trends WILL PUSH UP
o) 2075 minimum 2110 maximum before getting shot down
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SO THEN... IS 8-DAY WAVE BY ITSELF in 15 min bar:הערה
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a) so in one of these recent postsb) I said that bears best opportunity (to change intermediate outcomes) have passed
c) THE BEST ONE was at 1) where it made 2015
d) the second best one was overnight one night that I said watch out if they push down...
e) BUT THEY DIDN't
f) so with each passing number 1-2-3-4-5-6 their odds get cut half
g) so by now it's it's 1/16 of where it was when it was 20215...
h) but BULLS STILL NEED A SPIKE for an "M'" top or a higher spike Thurs night like:
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i) in chart above, so like that...j) either one is fine
k) bc this corrects the "rhythm" for all smaller waves, 6-day, 3-day and so on..
l) the dotted line is where I had the the wave marked BEFORE...
m) the bold line is where I have it now
n) the DASHED LINE is the"turn shadow" to predict when the spike is
o) everything points to Sunday night or Monday morning if late
p) that's a wrap for notes...
q) there's not much action left until then bc we are at 2032
r) and the range is tighter than my lhi-ights make it seem
s) it's more like 2026-2038, so 6pts either direction
t) that's why in the beginning I said SKIP THIS WEEK bc it's not gonna happen...
u) so once we have Friday wrapped up, I can post price curves for next 5-days
v) good night
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02/08 2:29 AM ET, THIS POST HAS ENDED TOO, HERE IS #5:הערה
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