We are in a consolidation between 1261 and 1275. At the bottom of this consolidation range traders are stepping in with longs. They are closing their longs at or near to the top of the range. Most probably we have an Unlimited seller who kills every momentum in gold when it's trying to break 1272-1273$. It's crystal clear this player(s) doesn't want to force gold to break below 1250 because when price drops below 1265$ these attacks are stopped. As soon as we break above 1276 the rally is starting.
We can have 2 scenarios to be played out. 1. (RED) It's a daylight scenario. In this case they will need the bears to see the price action and enter shorts on a news or event ( for example it could be tomorrow's GDP news). On a good data - what they know before we would get know it - they start to sell gold. Gold breaks below the lower level of the consolidation( 1260$) . That will trigger the range trader's stops who are trying to long the next move in the range. Also the sleeping bears will be activated as a breakdown occurs. It could be strong and sudden move down with the bulls margin calls. I think this will not take out the 1241$ level but it could be very close to that level. When the stops were run and they have all the bears on board they turn price in the next hour squeezing the bears' shorts and the rally can begin without the bulls who were overleveraged and had stopped out.
2. (BLUE) Night scenario. It also can happen any night when miners were down. ( Tonight is also a perfect night for this scenario) This is a miners gap up scenario. In this version they break gold price above 1275-76$ in the night session. When USA opens the next day gold could be around 1285$ and miners are opening with a huge gap leaving everyone behind.
הערה
⋅
2015. October... It's a mirror chart to see the similarity.
הערה
⋅
This would be the red scenario.
הערה
⋅
It seems to me that we lost the price controller...
הערה
⋅
Watching the weekly chart it's very bullish to me... The 50 and 200 SMA crossover is ahead of us. We just tagged the 200 SMA and heading higher with a green weekly candle again...
הערה
⋅
Lightspeed.... Guys I told you it's coming....
הערה
⋅
DXY cannot stand up. If we printed the top there is no manipulation can gold stop going up from now.
הערה
⋅
I had no internet access on the weekend so updating gold in the next hour after NatGAs I think as oil, stocks might be collapsing gold will rocket higher in the following days. I will post a strong long idea in the next hour . If you want to be positioned don't hesitate.
תגובות
leonarddavidson60
⋅
Thanks for your input,Arpi. .greatly appreciated..in relation to latest actions by Unlimited Sellers(5 major bullion banks,one being known as proxy for Fed) i do agree with you that they are intentionally supressing the price of gold for the time being ..some people trying to find resson like its due to Diwali season and they do not want to spook very fragile Indian market etc etc..But whatever the reason ,the banks are loading in miners very heavily since the 4th of October,preparing for the next trigger/excuse needed to push the price up...and by analyzing the similarity of patterns ,the algorythmic HFT trading desks have been performing in wee hours lately, im getting more convinced that most likely scenario they would try to play:is the Night Scenario , you had described above..
It was very clear yesterday, that there were no major reasons for pullback in miners.
IT was initiated by the banks HFT computers,which in coordinated and orderly manner started dumping miner shares until the desired result was achieved..We may see some weakness in miners ,but only for very short time..It is all set now by them to initiaate a new,violent upleg in second phase of a new bull market..election result,hike or no hike- for the bullion banks it is only an excuse to move the market in desired direction and to make more money..
..Despite finishing building the full position between 5th of October and last week, i added more shares yesterday in GDXJ , before the close,and sold half of the position in JNUG ,..ten-fifteen minutes in premarket trading, ,before the opening ,when premarket price movements have started showing clear signs of some "unusual "weakness on my charts..Yesterday oversold prices were screaming buys and another good buying opportunity,which we may no longer see begore X-mas...
most probably,i would re-enter into JNUG position in premarket again today...provided the gold price would remain in 1269-1272 current ,artificial range..But again,this is a humble opinion of an old retired trader..and everyone should trade accordingly to their own level of experience and expertise in PM markets !!!!.
Good trading to everyone this Friday!!
charlie12
⋅
Hey Arpri. Thanks for what you do. Sorry about the trolls on your boards, but know that your followers appreciate it.
toothless
⋅
Definitely appreciate, thank you!
VRShaiju
⋅
You finally making an agreement with Elliotwave traders. MMM every strategy is great. Including yours.. I noticed one thing here you like controversial topics to make discussion on your idea. So that's
VirtualFax
⋅
The miners are not following through with Gold... That might be an indication of Gold direction early next week.
JesseL
⋅
For those of you who may not have been watching the markets today, This is what happened to Gold, SPY and the Dollar the moment the FBI released their news bulletin regarding the new email investigation with Hillary Clinton. This is a very important clue to tell us the direction of these three market components the day after the election results are confirmed.
As far as I am concerned, this investigation will put a stake in the heart of Clinton and seriously affect her chances of winning.
Trade with caution....JesseL
webmiztriz
⋅
nice :)
USSRandolph
⋅
gold up $16, NUGT, GDX hardly at all. Any ideas, comments? Inquiring minds would like to know.
sandhusukhjit
⋅
Percentages?
VirtualFax
⋅
Miners are typically leading (or anticipating the next Gold move, to be precise). I hope that addresses your question.
It was very clear yesterday, that there were no major reasons for pullback in miners.
IT was initiated by the banks HFT computers,which in coordinated and orderly manner started dumping miner shares until the desired result was achieved..We may see some weakness in miners ,but only for very short time..It is all set now by them to initiaate a new,violent upleg in second phase of a new bull market..election result,hike or no hike- for the bullion banks it is only an excuse to move the market in desired direction and to make more money..
..Despite finishing building the full position between 5th of October and last week, i added more shares yesterday in GDXJ , before the close,and sold half of the position in JNUG ,..ten-fifteen minutes in premarket trading, ,before the opening ,when premarket price movements have started showing clear signs of some "unusual "weakness on my charts..Yesterday oversold prices were screaming buys and another good buying opportunity,which we may no longer see begore X-mas...
most probably,i would re-enter into JNUG position in premarket again today...provided the gold price would remain in 1269-1272 current ,artificial range..But again,this is a humble opinion of an old retired trader..and everyone should trade accordingly to their own level of experience and expertise in PM markets !!!!.
Good trading to everyone this Friday!!