Bulls took the bait nicely. The story is always the same : small traders are fed as they are chasing the price before the big correction. Big players and banks are positioning in miners shorts and gold shorts. The small traders are concentrating on a trendline breakout which died out. It's true we broke the trendline and that could be the beginning of a run higher but we are in a rally mode for 6 months. There was simply too much time used for the first 2 daily cycles . And the first 2 daily cycle was weak. The after-election decline was too severe. Also the 2nd daily cycle's decline was strong. So even with a powerful rally in the 3rd daily cycle we just tagged the triangle upper trendline. And a breakout in the 4th daily cycle.... It was obvious : it's a trap. Today we tried to break above the trendline again but price dropped back to the neckline of the hourly h&s pattern.
Gold is foredoomed to fall now. We are back in the triangle, the dollar is ready to rally and the euro is ready to fall... I switched to Heikin Ashi candles. We will be falling at least till the first green candle. The declines in the Heikin Ashi candle chart were lasting longer and longer. The first was 3 days long, the second 10 and the third 16... This decline should last 20-25 days. So minimum 15 more days...
The target price counted from the H&S pattern is at 1226. I think we will test back the previous DCL at 1213,5 and price will break below it and probably test the triangle's lower trendline.
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The apex is broken down. Adding some more position.
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Guys this is the point where you need to get out of the longs or enter the short position. This is the breakdown we were looking for. The timing is right. The level is right. The target price counted from the h&s pattern is 35-40 dollars down from here.
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I know that most of you who is short wants a vertical red candle down to 1170...
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:D That's not going to happen though. The Heiken Ashi chart looks perfect. Red candle again.
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We are waiting for a 70-80$ decline in 2-3 weeks. If we go down by 20$ / day the decline would be ready by next week Wednesday. And we need a panic selling at the end of this story.
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So there will be doji days and green candle days on the conventional candlestick chart.
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One thing is sure I wouldn't be long with this MACD divergence. Most of the cases that MACD divergence ends badly.
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I guess it'll be a red candle again on the heiken ashi chart...
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This is not the panic selling yet.
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We are just entering the recognition phase of the intermediate decline. Holding the short positions.
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The Heiken Ashi daily chart needs to be checked at the end of the day. I don't think the decline is done yet. Holding the shorts.
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I show you what I see...
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I see just a bounce from the 200 SMA up to the 10 EMA and the 50 EMA...
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It's not bullish at all. Bulls are clearly losing control.
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We just lost the
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100 SMA and 50EMA... And couldn't tag the 200 SMA on the hourly.
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Raising the bets... I'm adding to the short position here. Will explain in a new idea. Trendline tag, neckline testback etc...
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I think we lost some bulls in the last minute...
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Heiken Ashi chart printed a red candle again. The chance is pretty high that it was a bear flag - just like the bull flags in the uptrend - and we have 10-15 days to the downside from here...
i am certainly feeding the FED now.. They are eating up my margin.
Singapore22
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Arpi, it was the same story last June. That big short never happened, yes there was Brexit. However, there are other signs this time: for instance, the dynamics of daily sentiment (trade-futures.com). And the cycle count could be different as well.
I am just saying that you're too confident again. You would eventually hedge in the worst case, but others might lose substantial amounts.
chartwatchers
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@Singapore22, I suggest to hold the shorts till the first green candle on the heikin ashi chart.
Even that decline last yesr June had a failed daily cycle.
chartwatchers
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@Singapore22, so the minimum decline is going to 1213.
Singapore22
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@chartwatchers, Thanks, Arpi. Though I am not looking for those targets.
Hiep_Khach_Hanh
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yes.it is bullshit, not bullish, haha
bhowe
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Arpi, did you close your short positions at the close? Gold moving higher this morning, looks like a DCL in place.
usef
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gold finished the correction, WE WILL START THE RALLY
to be sure wait to break 1255 then 1260
BjornPfaff
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@usef, Is not finished :-) only temporary upmove ;-) watch the chart upcoming week ..
usef
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@BjornPfaff, already bought 1244,
check rsi, macd
weekly candle close hammer
higher highs, higher lows
gold was having a target for the correction 1245