XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) 2-hour chart
Market Structure Overview:
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar)
Timeframe: 2-hour chart
Current Bias: Short-term bearish, aligning with a Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern setups, suggesting further downside pressure.
Wyckoff Distribution:
The left section of the chart shows a Wyckoff Distribution Phase, which typically indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend (distribution phase before markdown). The phases and key elements are marked:
PSY (Preliminary Supply): Initial signs of selling pressure.
BC (Buying Climax): Strong buying into resistance, with institutions offloading positions.
AR (Automatic Reaction): Sharp decline as sellers step in after the BC.
ST (Secondary Test): A retest of the BC zone before another drop.
Within this framework:
UT in Phase B: This represents an "Upthrust," a false breakout that traps buyers, signaling the beginning of distribution.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply): Indicates that sellers have regained control, confirming a bearish move after a test of the upper range.
Elliott Wave Breakdown:
The chart details an Elliott Wave structure, which consists of 5 waves in the impulsive move (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective phase.
Wave 1-5 (Downtrend): The market has completed an impulsive five-wave decline, ending at a key support level near 2,604.
Wave (1) to (5): The red labels indicate the completed impulsive structure (Wave (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5)). The primary structure confirms a bearish bias.
The market is now entering a corrective phase labeled as an ABC zigzag correction.
A (4) to B (4): The correction is unfolding with a counter-trend rally that has likely completed or is nearing completion. Wave A has retraced to significant Fibonacci levels, with Wave B in process.
Wave C: A potential upcoming move down will complete the ABC correction, marking the end of the retracement phase.
Harmonic Pattern:
A bearish Gartley pattern is also in play. This harmonic pattern is characterized by the following Fibonacci levels:
XA: Initial impulse leg.
AB: Retraces 61.8% of XA.
BC: Retraces 38.2% of AB.
CD (Completion of the pattern): Extends to 78.6% of the XA leg, showing where the reversal is likely to occur.
The completion of this harmonic pattern would coincide with the final leg of the Elliott Wave corrective structure (Wave C), suggesting a confluence of bearish signals.
Volume Profile:
POC (Point of Control): The Point of Control is marked at around 2,664.4, indicating the price level with the most trading activity during the recent structure. This is a critical level of resistance.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.618 retracement of the latest decline near 2,654.
0.786 retracement around 2,657. These levels have acted as resistance, limiting the retracement of the price within the corrective Wave B structure.
Divergences:
The MACD histogram at the bottom of the chart indicates that bearish divergence is starting to appear, aligning with the end of Wave B and potentially signaling a downside continuation.
Next Week's Plan:
Bearish Bias Confirmation:
Monitor for a breakdown below key support levels (around 2,604) to confirm that Wave C is unfolding.
A break below the last Structure Low (SO) would signal a continuation of the downtrend, targeting Wave 5 completion.
Shorting Opportunity:
If the price reaches the invalidation levels near 2,657 (78.6% retracement), it would invalidate the bearish structure. Until then, expect further downside potential.
Look for shorting opportunities at the end of the retracement around 2,654-2,657, with stops above the invalidation level (around 2,664).
Targets:
The immediate downside target aligns with Wave 5 extension, projected at 2,605, and potentially extending down to 2,593.
Harmonic Confluence:
Once the Gartley pattern completes, expect a reversal. Watch for a strong reaction at 2,600-2,605. If this holds, you might see a short-term bounce or further downside continuation if broken.
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar)
Timeframe: 2-hour chart
Current Bias: Short-term bearish, aligning with a Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern setups, suggesting further downside pressure.
Wyckoff Distribution:
The left section of the chart shows a Wyckoff Distribution Phase, which typically indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend (distribution phase before markdown). The phases and key elements are marked:
PSY (Preliminary Supply): Initial signs of selling pressure.
BC (Buying Climax): Strong buying into resistance, with institutions offloading positions.
AR (Automatic Reaction): Sharp decline as sellers step in after the BC.
ST (Secondary Test): A retest of the BC zone before another drop.
Within this framework:
UT in Phase B: This represents an "Upthrust," a false breakout that traps buyers, signaling the beginning of distribution.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply): Indicates that sellers have regained control, confirming a bearish move after a test of the upper range.
Elliott Wave Breakdown:
The chart details an Elliott Wave structure, which consists of 5 waves in the impulsive move (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective phase.
Wave 1-5 (Downtrend): The market has completed an impulsive five-wave decline, ending at a key support level near 2,604.
Wave (1) to (5): The red labels indicate the completed impulsive structure (Wave (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5)). The primary structure confirms a bearish bias.
The market is now entering a corrective phase labeled as an ABC zigzag correction.
A (4) to B (4): The correction is unfolding with a counter-trend rally that has likely completed or is nearing completion. Wave A has retraced to significant Fibonacci levels, with Wave B in process.
Wave C: A potential upcoming move down will complete the ABC correction, marking the end of the retracement phase.
Harmonic Pattern:
A bearish Gartley pattern is also in play. This harmonic pattern is characterized by the following Fibonacci levels:
XA: Initial impulse leg.
AB: Retraces 61.8% of XA.
BC: Retraces 38.2% of AB.
CD (Completion of the pattern): Extends to 78.6% of the XA leg, showing where the reversal is likely to occur.
The completion of this harmonic pattern would coincide with the final leg of the Elliott Wave corrective structure (Wave C), suggesting a confluence of bearish signals.
Volume Profile:
POC (Point of Control): The Point of Control is marked at around 2,664.4, indicating the price level with the most trading activity during the recent structure. This is a critical level of resistance.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.618 retracement of the latest decline near 2,654.
0.786 retracement around 2,657. These levels have acted as resistance, limiting the retracement of the price within the corrective Wave B structure.
Divergences:
The MACD histogram at the bottom of the chart indicates that bearish divergence is starting to appear, aligning with the end of Wave B and potentially signaling a downside continuation.
Next Week's Plan:
Bearish Bias Confirmation:
Monitor for a breakdown below key support levels (around 2,604) to confirm that Wave C is unfolding.
A break below the last Structure Low (SO) would signal a continuation of the downtrend, targeting Wave 5 completion.
Shorting Opportunity:
If the price reaches the invalidation levels near 2,657 (78.6% retracement), it would invalidate the bearish structure. Until then, expect further downside potential.
Look for shorting opportunities at the end of the retracement around 2,654-2,657, with stops above the invalidation level (around 2,664).
Targets:
The immediate downside target aligns with Wave 5 extension, projected at 2,605, and potentially extending down to 2,593.
Harmonic Confluence:
Once the Gartley pattern completes, expect a reversal. Watch for a strong reaction at 2,600-2,605. If this holds, you might see a short-term bounce or further downside continuation if broken.
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.