Everytime the Australian consumer confidence index has fallen below 80 into severe pessimism the XJO has corrected atleast 30% from peak to trough.
This has been the case the last 4 times over a 40 year period.
Currently XJO has a had a decent correction but not even close to 30%.
Looks highly probable that we are headed down below 80 in the next few months. Suggesting we could be in a dead cat bounce environment on the XJO.
Also noted the 10 month MA has also dipped under the 3O month MA each time and currently sits well above, which suggests possibly another leg down early next year.
Australia's consumer confidence has fallen for the fifth consecutive week, marking a longest span of decline in over two years since August 2020, showed a consumer confidence report released on Tuesday.
The latest report by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Roy Morgan market research company said Australia's consumer confidence decreased by 1.5 percent to 79.9 points in the week to Oct. 30, 28.5 points less than a year earlier and 9.9 points less than the 2022 weekly average of 89.8.
The report also revealed that the proportion of survey respondents who think they are financially worse off than a year earlier has risen to 47 percent, the highest since March 2020.
below 80 = severe pessimism. History says the XJO may atleast see 30% from peak to trough
My reckoning for a year now is asx200 bottom ~6200 mid 2023. Also interesting is that mid 2023 is 8 months before the next BTC algo halving meaning at that time crypto should also bottom for independent reasons but deceptively making it appear coupled to macro factors.
rutt
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@h3DgE4B33F, Agree, early to mid is the bottom, one more leg lower. How low is the million dollar question.
Mathenomic
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Can't wait for next year's fixed rate mortgage reset to occur at the same time mass immigration is back at full speed to crush wages, employment, and discretionary spending all at once from multiple directions. Always a bit nervous on calling the 200 though because of the % made up by banks and resources; banks have stretched their margins out and made better profits and the commodities commentary on wall street and a poorly founded belief that China will continue to consume the same share of copper and iron ore they had to when they were urbanising residential capacity is still a very strong narrative the market seems to be following.
rutt
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@Mathenomic, I like the commentary keep it coming.