RISK ALERT: AAPL $80-100 soon
Apple is out of juice -- it needs some Red Bull of a catalyst to change direction, and.... it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
Like many stocks, AAPL is showing signs of a Head and Shoulder pattern. If AAPL (and so many other stocks) break the neckline next week, we're n for a ride.... down.
BUT, with May earnings call, I think we could survive this one for now. I have said it earlier, I expect a choppy but greener April overall. The real risk may come through after earnings. What makes AAPL a much more difficult investment at this stage is that it has the potential of a larger H&S pattern (I have put this in the background in grey).
Either ways, now or in the summer, I am expecting AAPL to hit $80-100.
Crazy?
Consider this: AAPL has not touched the 50MA on the weekly chart at all since 30 March 2020. Was AAPL's business really booming that much during the pandemic? Or was it just that new investors went to buy the companies that they were most familiar with? The September and October 2020 "corrections" still did not see AAPL get near the 50MA on the weekly. This is only because the momentum for last year was so strong, that the 50MA just could not catch up to the stock at a pace it has been on for so many years.
Consider these modest corrections across 2016 and 2018 where it reached the 50MA (teal coloured line) on weekly and bounced.
Now consider where we are today and how much further we have until AAPL touches the 50MA on the weekly
Verdict:
I think AAPL will struggle to go over $130 even if we have a rally unfortunately in coming months. Meanwhile, the downside -- we're going to see AAPL at $100 or perhaps even lower this year.
Good luck traders -- stay safe.
Like many stocks, AAPL is showing signs of a Head and Shoulder pattern. If AAPL (and so many other stocks) break the neckline next week, we're n for a ride.... down.
BUT, with May earnings call, I think we could survive this one for now. I have said it earlier, I expect a choppy but greener April overall. The real risk may come through after earnings. What makes AAPL a much more difficult investment at this stage is that it has the potential of a larger H&S pattern (I have put this in the background in grey).
Either ways, now or in the summer, I am expecting AAPL to hit $80-100.
Crazy?
Consider this: AAPL has not touched the 50MA on the weekly chart at all since 30 March 2020. Was AAPL's business really booming that much during the pandemic? Or was it just that new investors went to buy the companies that they were most familiar with? The September and October 2020 "corrections" still did not see AAPL get near the 50MA on the weekly. This is only because the momentum for last year was so strong, that the 50MA just could not catch up to the stock at a pace it has been on for so many years.
Consider these modest corrections across 2016 and 2018 where it reached the 50MA (teal coloured line) on weekly and bounced.
Now consider where we are today and how much further we have until AAPL touches the 50MA on the weekly
Verdict:
I think AAPL will struggle to go over $130 even if we have a rally unfortunately in coming months. Meanwhile, the downside -- we're going to see AAPL at $100 or perhaps even lower this year.
Good luck traders -- stay safe.
כתב ויתור
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