2021 ADA vs 2024/2025 ADA - Dominace, BTC valuation, Market Cap

As Mr. Cowen puts it: "Price does not follow narrative, narrative follows price". With this in mind let's start by asking two questions:

1) What drove ADA in the prior cycle?
2) What is driving ADA this cycle and are there similarities between 2020/2021 and now?

• -Is it the Presidential Election Cycle Theory? That every 4 years, like clockwork, BTC goes parabolic and drags the entire asset class up with it.
  
  
• -Is it the Fed printing trillions upon trillions of dollars? That this increased money supply combined with an increase in retail/institutional interest in the crypto space has artificially inflated the USD valuation of both BTC and ALTs?
  
  
• -Is it Hoskinson already having established himself in the crypto space with ETH but also having a genuine, tangible desire to create what Cardano has become? He's made his wealth, he has a vision, he employs a team of engineers, and leans on an ever growing legion of global developers to continue to refine the Cardano ecosystem.
  
  
• -Is it some combination of all of the above, other factors I'm not even aware of, and/or just simple "I believe in it and will therefore use and hold it?"
  

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What most people are interested in is that ADAUSD went from a few cents to $3.10 in the span of a 18 months: A greater than 10,000% gain. And after a long slumber, it's on the move again...but why? What is driving it this time around and what is the potential USD valuation that these forces could push ADA too?

-The US presidential election just happened and BTC is knocking on the door of 100k.
-The Fed has begun to lower interest rates and will potentially start QE in 2025.
-The next administration is likely to be far friendlier to the crypto space as a whole than the prior admin.
-Gary Gensler is also resigning from the SEC on Jan 20th, 2025.
-More people, both within the US and globally, are adopting, using, and holding crypto today than ever before.
-The Cardano ecosystem is far, far more developed than it was 4 years ago.

Now you can love ADA or hate it, you can think its mana from heaven or simply trash, you can deeply understand it and it's applications or have no understanding of it all. None of that really matters because ultimately, price action is king.

The old adage of "buy the rumor, sell the news" needs to be visited here. Why?

-Charles is potentially poised to be the incoming administration's, presidential crypto advisor. He might not get the job (and has written that he thinks Brian Armstrong should have it), but at the end of the day he is friends with many of the people who will occupy some of the highest jobs in the federal government.

-He also plans on spending a lot of time in Washington in 2025 generally advising Congress on crypto policy.

-There is allegedly a N.D.A. for Cardano to be the blockchain ecosystem that SpaceX (and other of Elon's companies) use going forward.

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All of this suggests, to me at least, that ADAUSD is poised to continue it's rally. To what extent, I don't know, but we can maybe gain some understanding by looking at ADA's dominance, ADA's marketcap, and the ADABTC valuation.

• ADAUSD of $3.00 is a Marketcap of: $107 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #6, XRP)
  
• ADAUSD of $5.00 is a Marketcap of: $178 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #4, SOL)
  
• ADAUSD of $8.00 is a Marketcap of: $286 Billion
  
• ADAUSD of $10.00 is a Marketcap of: $357 Billion
  
• ADAUSD of $12.00 is a Marketcap of: $429 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #2, ETH)
  

Let's make 2 assumptions (which may be completely wrong) for the sake of example.

1) The total Marketcap of the entire crypto space is going to roughly top around 10T. It's currently 3.27T at time of writing.

2) ADA's Dominance will top roughly around 4% AND the ADABTC valuation will top roughly around 4500 sats.

Well, if the MC goes to 10T and if ADA's dominance goes to 4%, that's an ADA MC of $400 Billion which would imply a USD valuation of roughly $ 11.80/ADA. A more than 10x return from where we are right now...but significantly less than the 100x from last cycle.

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The tricky part is the ADABTC valuation. Assuming BTC's price doesn't change at all and ADA's just skyrockets (an extremely unlikely scenario, but please work with me for a second), we're a 318% increase away from the sat target of 4500. In this scenario, ADA triples to a new all time high, but doesn't hit a USD valuation of 5/ADA.

Is Bitcoin going to triple in price from it's current USD value THIS CYCLE? Call me a bear, but I just don't see BTC at 300k in 2025. I hope I'm wrong, but I just think we're a cycle or two away from that point.

If BTC hits 125k though, what life does this breath into the ADABTC valuation? It means that ADA can more than triple and still be under the ~4500 sat target...corresponding to a USD value maybe in the $3.8-$5 range.

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Of course, these are moot points IF ADA entrenches itself as the likes of another ETH this cycle. Exiting the halls of being an Altcoin and firmly establishing itself as a blue-chip, household name. For this to happen, ADA's satoshi valuation against BTC would have to absolutely smash the prior cycle highs...or BTCUSD would have to reach a crazy high value...or the total crypto marketcap would have to vastly exceed 10T...or some combination of the aforementioned.

I do not have a crystal ball and I cannot predict the future, but I do think that an ADA can cautiously hit $8 this cycle. Will it happen? I don't know. I'm long term bullish on ADA so I'm not sweating the next 6-9 months.

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All of that being said: this is not financial, trading, or investment advice. Do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for any gains or loses you may or may not have.