IDX $AGII Rising Wedge Potential Breakdown

19 באוק׳ 2022

AGII of IDX

Technical:
Rising Wedge breakdown followed a textbook ABC pattern
Breakdown will result in freefall to a strong first support at 1400 area, followed by a failed attempt to push past the bottom channel of the wedge and will start another freefall to the next support at 800 area inside 0.618 fib area.

Fundamental:
The trigger would likely be the (next) earning report as evidence in decline of EBITDA over the subsequence quarter which has little hope to reclaim record earning at Q3 2021
Q4 2021 exhibit a poor earning performance(-25% from Q3) but followed by a <low volume pump> to new ATH at 2500. The (low volume) markup most likely mark the start of distribution phase to from institution to retail whom realized the declining performance of the company and increasingly unhealthy interest payment coverage by its operating cash flow (EBIT/debt interest : 1.7x)

AGII's EBITDA
Q3 2021 275
Q4 2021 204 ↓
Q1 2022 184 ↓