Trend: In the 4H timeframe, the AUD/CAD pair is currently in a downtrend, characterized by the formation of lower lows and lower highs. Recently, we have seen the formation of a bull flag pattern, which typically signals a potential reversal or continuation of a bullish trend. The price has broken through two minor key support levels at 0.90600 and 0.89800. Our objective now is to wait for the price to retest the 0.90200 level, which may lead to an accumulation phase for buy orders. We anticipate a potential manipulation phase, or stop-loss hunt, below the minor key support and within our liquidity zone. Following this, we will wait for the price to return and break above the minor key support before taking action.
Price Action Expectation: We expect that the bull flag formation could signal a breakout to the upside. Once the price breaks above the minor key support, it could trigger further buying momentum. Our goal is to place a buy stop order above the 0.90200 level, once the price demonstrates strength in breaking through, while protecting our position with a stop-loss below the liquidity zone.
Trade Setup:
Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 0.90100 (just above the minor key support) Stop Loss: 0.89380 (positioned below our liquidity zone to protect against adverse movements) Take Profit: 0.91590 (targeting the next key resistance level) Upcoming News (Fundamental Outlook): This Friday, we have important economic data from Canada that could influence the price of AUD/CAD:
Core Retail Sales m/m (Canada): Expected at 0.2% (previous: 0.9%) Retail Sales m/m (Canada): Any surprises in these retail sales figures could affect the CAD strength. A weaker-than-expected reading may lead to bearish pressure on CAD, which would support our bullish outlook for AUD/CAD.
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