AUDJPY Lower
Trying AUDJPY lower here.
potential double top forming here.
Overall the narrative is in favour of a move lower, the RBA were pretty dovish today and seems to be the end of the tightening cycle while the BoJ are likely to get started this year and will likely see people positioning for it.
the rate differentials are near the lows while the pair is near the highs, i think this comes down to a few things. firstly global yields were rising on the easing of global banking worries, i now think they move lower as we get a global slowdown in the economy and yields push back lower. I think the reason AUDJPY is still at the highs while yields are nearer the lows is also because of seasonals, USDJPY has bullish seasonality up until april 5th. i think once this ends we see JPY strengthen and catch back up to the move lower in yields.
I think it's also potentially hard for the US500 to move too much higher from here and as AUDJPY is correlated to it, it should be hard for the pair to move too much higher.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
potential double top forming here.
Overall the narrative is in favour of a move lower, the RBA were pretty dovish today and seems to be the end of the tightening cycle while the BoJ are likely to get started this year and will likely see people positioning for it.
the rate differentials are near the lows while the pair is near the highs, i think this comes down to a few things. firstly global yields were rising on the easing of global banking worries, i now think they move lower as we get a global slowdown in the economy and yields push back lower. I think the reason AUDJPY is still at the highs while yields are nearer the lows is also because of seasonals, USDJPY has bullish seasonality up until april 5th. i think once this ends we see JPY strengthen and catch back up to the move lower in yields.
I think it's also potentially hard for the US500 to move too much higher from here and as AUDJPY is correlated to it, it should be hard for the pair to move too much higher.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
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