TA structure points to further upside
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone at the moment, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Following a period of hesitation, AUD/USD bulls made an entrance last week, with recent price swinging above 0.6931 resistance.
The break to the upside shines this week’s focus on two trendline resistances inhabiting territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), with a break unmasking another resistance at 0.7197.
Failure to maintain a position above 0.6931 will throw light back on support at 0.6755. Traders will also note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6668 lurks just south of here, a dynamic value in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced Thursday, penetrating the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and shortly after retesting the base as support.
Friday, despite decreased liquidity across the board due to the US holiday, modestly extended Thursday’s retest, consequently positioning bulls in a favourable position going into the week.
H1 timeframe:
With the help of optimistic US employment data, intraday tagged 0.6950 resistance Thursday and rushed trendline support (0.6832). This also put in a near-test of 0.69.
Friday, on the other hand, reclaimed most of Thursday’s losses. A break of 0.6950 is, therefore, a possibility this week, shedding light on an area of stacked supply covering 0.7003/0.6987 and 0.6994/0.6968, which holds the widely watched 0.70 level within.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance, stressing a mild bullish tone. This is further confirmed on the daily timeframe after crossing resistance at 0.6931.
Short term:
The recent H4 close north of the bullish pennant pattern (0.7064/0.6776) helps confirm upside on the higher timeframes.
As for the H1 timeframe, intraday traders are still likely zeroing in on 0.6950 resistance. A break of this region adds weight to the pair’s upward bias and, ultimately, provides a signal to consider longs. Do keep in mind, however, H1 displays stacked supply nearby, covering 0.7003/0.6987 and 0.6994/0.6968.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone at the moment, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Following a period of hesitation, AUD/USD bulls made an entrance last week, with recent price swinging above 0.6931 resistance.
The break to the upside shines this week’s focus on two trendline resistances inhabiting territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), with a break unmasking another resistance at 0.7197.
Failure to maintain a position above 0.6931 will throw light back on support at 0.6755. Traders will also note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6668 lurks just south of here, a dynamic value in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced Thursday, penetrating the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and shortly after retesting the base as support.
Friday, despite decreased liquidity across the board due to the US holiday, modestly extended Thursday’s retest, consequently positioning bulls in a favourable position going into the week.
H1 timeframe:
With the help of optimistic US employment data, intraday tagged 0.6950 resistance Thursday and rushed trendline support (0.6832). This also put in a near-test of 0.69.
Friday, on the other hand, reclaimed most of Thursday’s losses. A break of 0.6950 is, therefore, a possibility this week, shedding light on an area of stacked supply covering 0.7003/0.6987 and 0.6994/0.6968, which holds the widely watched 0.70 level within.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance, stressing a mild bullish tone. This is further confirmed on the daily timeframe after crossing resistance at 0.6931.
Short term:
The recent H4 close north of the bullish pennant pattern (0.7064/0.6776) helps confirm upside on the higher timeframes.
As for the H1 timeframe, intraday traders are still likely zeroing in on 0.6950 resistance. A break of this region adds weight to the pair’s upward bias and, ultimately, provides a signal to consider longs. Do keep in mind, however, H1 displays stacked supply nearby, covering 0.7003/0.6987 and 0.6994/0.6968.
כתב ויתור
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