H1 Five-wave structure???
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
May is proving lacklustre, however, up 0.38% as of writing.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remained in the fight last week, with price shattering a three-day winning streak by way of a bearish inside candle formation on Thursday, and modestly following through Friday.
Circling the upper border, we have the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, fixed a few pips from the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6658.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384, between 0.6561/0.6432.
The week kicked off penetrating the upper boundary of the falling wedge, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending ground and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595. The remainder of the week observed price give back a portion of earlier gains to lows at 0.6505.
In regards to technical zones, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is on the hit list. Demand at 0.6356/0.6384 also offers a base of focus this week.
H1 timeframe:
Risk sensitive currencies took a mild hit Friday, in the middle of forming what appears to be a five-wave impulse move on the H1 timeframe, with the expectation waves 1 and 5 will equal. It’s common to see wave 4 terminate around 38.2% of wave 3, therefore, we could see an intraday push lower from the 0.6550 range, followed by a whipsaw through 0.65 into demand at 0.6483/0.6472 (prior supply), which conveniently unites with wave 5.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, despite recent action pulling back. This unlocks the possibility of bringing in the nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6658, a dynamic value connecting closely with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
Short term:
0.6550 deserves notice on the H1 timeframe as resistance, powered on the back of a possible wave-4 completion and room to navigate lower levels on the H4 timeframe. Intraday sellers will likely watch 0.65 as a take-profit target from 0.6550, as well as demand from 0.6483/0.6472 on the H1.
The noted demand, given a possible wave-5 completion, is not only measured as a downside target for shorts, it also forms a base of strong support to consider this week.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
May is proving lacklustre, however, up 0.38% as of writing.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remained in the fight last week, with price shattering a three-day winning streak by way of a bearish inside candle formation on Thursday, and modestly following through Friday.
Circling the upper border, we have the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, fixed a few pips from the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6658.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384, between 0.6561/0.6432.
The week kicked off penetrating the upper boundary of the falling wedge, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending ground and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595. The remainder of the week observed price give back a portion of earlier gains to lows at 0.6505.
In regards to technical zones, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is on the hit list. Demand at 0.6356/0.6384 also offers a base of focus this week.
H1 timeframe:
Risk sensitive currencies took a mild hit Friday, in the middle of forming what appears to be a five-wave impulse move on the H1 timeframe, with the expectation waves 1 and 5 will equal. It’s common to see wave 4 terminate around 38.2% of wave 3, therefore, we could see an intraday push lower from the 0.6550 range, followed by a whipsaw through 0.65 into demand at 0.6483/0.6472 (prior supply), which conveniently unites with wave 5.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, despite recent action pulling back. This unlocks the possibility of bringing in the nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6658, a dynamic value connecting closely with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
Short term:
0.6550 deserves notice on the H1 timeframe as resistance, powered on the back of a possible wave-4 completion and room to navigate lower levels on the H4 timeframe. Intraday sellers will likely watch 0.65 as a take-profit target from 0.6550, as well as demand from 0.6483/0.6472 on the H1.
The noted demand, given a possible wave-5 completion, is not only measured as a downside target for shorts, it also forms a base of strong support to consider this week.
כתב ויתור
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