Thoughts on the Aussie chart...
Weekly gain/loss: + 32 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.7924
Over the course of last week’s trading, the commodity currency remained above the weekly support area coming in at 0.7849-0.7752. Providing that the bulls continue to bid this market higher from here, the next upside target can be seen at 0.8075: a resistance that stretches as far back as September 2008.
The response from the weekly support zone, coupled with daily flow bouncing from a demand base seen at 0.7786-0.7838 (encases a broken Quasimodo level at 0.7819), could lead to a move north up to the Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7988 sometime this week.
A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 timeframe, however, shows price reclaimed the 0.79 handle and ended the day shaking hands with a trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8065. Consequent to this recent movement, the large psychological 0.80 level has appeared on our radar. Apart from 0.80 being a watched round number, there are several nearby structures that deserve mention:
• The daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7988.
• A H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8007.
• A H4 127.2% Fib ext. point at 0.80 taken from the low 0.7807.
• August’s opening level at 0.7998.
• A H4 Harmonic Gartley reversal point at the 78.6% Fib resistance line drawn from 0.8011.
Suggestions: While the above structures (H4 green sell zone) boast attractive confluence, one must take into account the possibility that a fakeout may be seen up to the daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8030 sited just above the green zone. Traditionally, when trading the Gartley Harmonic pattern the stop-loss order should go beyond the X point (0.8065). If you were to follow this, a fakeout up to the daily Quasimodo resistance is not a concern. It is more for the aggressive traders who will likely look to position stops just beyond the green zone. Should you be one of those traders, you may want to consider waiting for the H4 candles to prove seller intent (in the form of either a full, or near-full-bodied candle), before pressing the sell button. This will help avoid a fakeout should it occur.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events scheduled to be released today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.8011/0.7988 (stop loss: either wait for a H4 bearish candle to form in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied candle, and place stops above the candle's wick. Another option is to simply enter at 0.80 and place stops above the H4 Harmonic X point at 0.8067).
Weekly closing price: 0.7924
Over the course of last week’s trading, the commodity currency remained above the weekly support area coming in at 0.7849-0.7752. Providing that the bulls continue to bid this market higher from here, the next upside target can be seen at 0.8075: a resistance that stretches as far back as September 2008.
The response from the weekly support zone, coupled with daily flow bouncing from a demand base seen at 0.7786-0.7838 (encases a broken Quasimodo level at 0.7819), could lead to a move north up to the Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7988 sometime this week.
A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 timeframe, however, shows price reclaimed the 0.79 handle and ended the day shaking hands with a trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8065. Consequent to this recent movement, the large psychological 0.80 level has appeared on our radar. Apart from 0.80 being a watched round number, there are several nearby structures that deserve mention:
• The daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7988.
• A H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8007.
• A H4 127.2% Fib ext. point at 0.80 taken from the low 0.7807.
• August’s opening level at 0.7998.
• A H4 Harmonic Gartley reversal point at the 78.6% Fib resistance line drawn from 0.8011.
Suggestions: While the above structures (H4 green sell zone) boast attractive confluence, one must take into account the possibility that a fakeout may be seen up to the daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8030 sited just above the green zone. Traditionally, when trading the Gartley Harmonic pattern the stop-loss order should go beyond the X point (0.8065). If you were to follow this, a fakeout up to the daily Quasimodo resistance is not a concern. It is more for the aggressive traders who will likely look to position stops just beyond the green zone. Should you be one of those traders, you may want to consider waiting for the H4 candles to prove seller intent (in the form of either a full, or near-full-bodied candle), before pressing the sell button. This will help avoid a fakeout should it occur.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events scheduled to be released today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.8011/0.7988 (stop loss: either wait for a H4 bearish candle to form in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied candle, and place stops above the candle's wick. Another option is to simply enter at 0.80 and place stops above the H4 Harmonic X point at 0.8067).
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