AUDUSD bull scenarios: Trade War news to give AUD a boost?

13 בנוב׳ 2018

There were two pieces of news reporting that top US and Chinese officials will meet this week to negotiate.

The initial news release caused a spike in AU and a rise in stocks.
I expect this to continue for rest of week, unless the news is debunked.
As well, AU has made pretty good retrace so it might time for a bounce.

So I have plotted two possible pathways up for the 5 wave impulse.
The key will be to gauge the w2 retrace, and then the ferocity of the wave 3.
Wave 3 of any impulse should be the most vertical, and longest wave for an idea bull sign.

I will update as price action dictates, and may post a new Idea once a specific path becomes more likely.

Background:
I am a longer term AUD bear, anticipating a serious drop yet to come

Since then I have been looking for shorting opportunities such as this recent plan

After a nice ride down, I went long which worked out very well

And then I caught the recent stair step down quite nicely:

Now, there is some good news about the US-China Trade War, so am expecting a move up and thus current plan

13 בנוב׳ 2018

הערה

aargh! dont know how I missed this fib on AU until now, kicking self in behind... :(

15 בנוב׳ 2018

הערה

AU hit intermediary target. Probably due for a little pullback now, but should continue higher after dip. Will post new Idea once I have the retrace possibilities plotted

15 בנוב׳ 2018

הערה

I have posted a new Idea with possible next moves for AU, at this link