AUDUSD Pennant Break for 70
Technical - Pennant
In October 2022 the AUDUSD went into a multiyear Pennant formation. Price has been locked
between .6170 and .7155.
We have recently seen price rejection of .6350, and significant buying volume enter the market.
Price has again moved above the 200MAV.
In the coming week we are likely to see continued strength in the Aussie , as a likely V shaped sharp rally sees price back at Channel Resistance .6770.
There is technical resistance near .6900 which has held on 3 occasions since June 23. A fourth occasion with a big catalyst will see a breakout of resistance.
Fundamentally
1. RBA - the RBA has maintained its stance that no rate cuts will take place in the next 6 months. The market is 100% pricing in a rate cut by the Fed in September 2024. This is a huge factor in an appreciation of the Aussie (Breakout Factor). Not to mention the rise seen in the Euro and Sterling.
2. Economic data - there were some positive signs for the Australian Economy in July 2024
a. GDP Growth: Australia’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2024.
b. Terms of Trade: The terms of trade improved by 0.2%, indicating better export prices relative to import prices.
c. Household Consumption: There was a slight increase in household consumption, which grew by 0.4%.
d. Inflation: Inflation continued its downward trend, moving from 3.8% to 3.3%, but still outside the RBA mandate. Hence the hold in interest rates by the RBA.
Employment: The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, showing resilience in the labor market.
3. Intermarket - Gold has a high correlation with AUDUSD. Gold is at an ATH and this will be significant boost for a major Commodity (Gold) country such as Australia.
The bias is Bullish for the Aussie presently, and any weakness around .6300+, would be bought. I doubt this possible scenario will play out. It is probable we see a price appreciation to the Supply Zone in the next 2-6 weeks.
In October 2022 the AUDUSD went into a multiyear Pennant formation. Price has been locked
between .6170 and .7155.
We have recently seen price rejection of .6350, and significant buying volume enter the market.
Price has again moved above the 200MAV.
In the coming week we are likely to see continued strength in the Aussie , as a likely V shaped sharp rally sees price back at Channel Resistance .6770.
There is technical resistance near .6900 which has held on 3 occasions since June 23. A fourth occasion with a big catalyst will see a breakout of resistance.
Fundamentally
1. RBA - the RBA has maintained its stance that no rate cuts will take place in the next 6 months. The market is 100% pricing in a rate cut by the Fed in September 2024. This is a huge factor in an appreciation of the Aussie (Breakout Factor). Not to mention the rise seen in the Euro and Sterling.
2. Economic data - there were some positive signs for the Australian Economy in July 2024
a. GDP Growth: Australia’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2024.
b. Terms of Trade: The terms of trade improved by 0.2%, indicating better export prices relative to import prices.
c. Household Consumption: There was a slight increase in household consumption, which grew by 0.4%.
d. Inflation: Inflation continued its downward trend, moving from 3.8% to 3.3%, but still outside the RBA mandate. Hence the hold in interest rates by the RBA.
Employment: The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, showing resilience in the labor market.
3. Intermarket - Gold has a high correlation with AUDUSD. Gold is at an ATH and this will be significant boost for a major Commodity (Gold) country such as Australia.
The bias is Bullish for the Aussie presently, and any weakness around .6300+, would be bought. I doubt this possible scenario will play out. It is probable we see a price appreciation to the Supply Zone in the next 2-6 weeks.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.