PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 JUN 2023 Finnifty
It is happening everyday, even today. Banknifty went up 198pts in 25mts between 14.45 to 15.10, again a closing hour move! The last 1 hour moves in index is not something new now, I am still guessing many traders would have anticipated a directional move today!
If we look the chart, the scope for that move was not there. What happened during the earlier part of the day is continuation of price drop from yesterday 14.00 (The blue drawn highlighted line). We made a low of the day, leg1 at 11.20 today and then bounced to an interim high by 13.45.
Ideally I was expecting the leg2 to happen to take banknifty further lower than 43960 levels. What really happened was vertical shoot, that even helped banknifty close in green today. Again we had a climb back after a support break of 44068.
Were you expecting the last 1 hr move today - do let me know in comments or as email.
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15mts TF has no special bias as of now, the downside is getting prevented while the upside doesnt seem possible with this faint momentum.
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1hr TF bias is still bullish, today's 14.15 green candle stays well lit instantly negating all the price action from 11.15 yesterday.
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Nifty50 requires special mention today, that is because NiftyIT was bleeding 2%, in spite of that the last 30mts of momentum helped it close in green. That is some achievement, instead of other stocks falling along with NiftyIT most of them counter balanced the drop and helped Nifty50 keep its shape. That is not something we see usually.
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Finnifty Expiry
Finnifty has shed 0.6% ~ 117pts between the last expiry and today. This index is consolidating at its high, a brief fall might even give it momentum for further scaling up, but definitely no major moves are expected until the RBI MPC meeting outcome on 8th June
Again an unbelievable price boost from 14.45 on finnifty. All through the day, I was looking for bearish set up once finnifty broke the 19421 SR levels. Waiting for the setup nearly eroded all the PE expiry premiums.
Even from a random betting perspective, I did not have any interest in bullish side setups. I might have taken a trade if the CE premiums were attractive, but that too did not help!
Also the killer move that came late in the day did not move that many needles as well.
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With the news breaking out that NSE will be shifting the banknifty expiries to Fridays will come as a blessing to many option traders. People like me have been praying to have Nifty50 and BankNifty expiries on different days.
Now that prayer is answered, traders can reuse margin & maximize their earning potential. This news also comes as a shock to BSE who had scheduled their SENSEX and BANKEX expiries on Fridays.
Atleast to start with, sensex+bankex will not match the banknifty volumes, open interest or liquidity. As you all know more professional traders prefer banknifty over nifty50, splitting it on separate days will multiply the traded volume as well!
If we look the chart, the scope for that move was not there. What happened during the earlier part of the day is continuation of price drop from yesterday 14.00 (The blue drawn highlighted line). We made a low of the day, leg1 at 11.20 today and then bounced to an interim high by 13.45.
Ideally I was expecting the leg2 to happen to take banknifty further lower than 43960 levels. What really happened was vertical shoot, that even helped banknifty close in green today. Again we had a climb back after a support break of 44068.
Were you expecting the last 1 hr move today - do let me know in comments or as email.
---
15mts TF has no special bias as of now, the downside is getting prevented while the upside doesnt seem possible with this faint momentum.
---
1hr TF bias is still bullish, today's 14.15 green candle stays well lit instantly negating all the price action from 11.15 yesterday.
---
Nifty50 requires special mention today, that is because NiftyIT was bleeding 2%, in spite of that the last 30mts of momentum helped it close in green. That is some achievement, instead of other stocks falling along with NiftyIT most of them counter balanced the drop and helped Nifty50 keep its shape. That is not something we see usually.
---
Finnifty Expiry
Finnifty has shed 0.6% ~ 117pts between the last expiry and today. This index is consolidating at its high, a brief fall might even give it momentum for further scaling up, but definitely no major moves are expected until the RBI MPC meeting outcome on 8th June
Again an unbelievable price boost from 14.45 on finnifty. All through the day, I was looking for bearish set up once finnifty broke the 19421 SR levels. Waiting for the setup nearly eroded all the PE expiry premiums.
Even from a random betting perspective, I did not have any interest in bullish side setups. I might have taken a trade if the CE premiums were attractive, but that too did not help!
Also the killer move that came late in the day did not move that many needles as well.
---
With the news breaking out that NSE will be shifting the banknifty expiries to Fridays will come as a blessing to many option traders. People like me have been praying to have Nifty50 and BankNifty expiries on different days.
Now that prayer is answered, traders can reuse margin & maximize their earning potential. This news also comes as a shock to BSE who had scheduled their SENSEX and BANKEX expiries on Fridays.
Atleast to start with, sensex+bankex will not match the banknifty volumes, open interest or liquidity. As you all know more professional traders prefer banknifty over nifty50, splitting it on separate days will multiply the traded volume as well!
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