PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 MAY 2023 expiry
Weekly Analysis
In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th.
Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.
It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact.
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Today's Analysis
We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green.
There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period.
Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money.
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15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness.
Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness?
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1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value.
The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.
In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th.
Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.
It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact.
---
Today's Analysis
We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green.
There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period.
Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money.
---
15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness.
Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness?
---
1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value.
The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.
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