Revisited this long term chart and updated it. It's really hard to be bullish after revisiting this. To expect BTC to start being in a medium term bullish trend would be to expect BTC to do something it's never done.
We're currently at the halfway mark towards the next halving, it's always bearish and in a medium term downtrend during this time.
Per my calculations Bitcoin will be in a bear market for the next 5-6 months and then it will hit a bottom capitulation area probably around the $21k-$25k area.
Of course it's very possible Bitcoin could do something it's never done before and I sure hope to hell it does but I'm leaning towards continuation of bear market behavior till this next October-November.
We're currently at the halfway mark towards the next halving, it's always bearish and in a medium term downtrend during this time.
Per my calculations Bitcoin will be in a bear market for the next 5-6 months and then it will hit a bottom capitulation area probably around the $21k-$25k area.
Of course it's very possible Bitcoin could do something it's never done before and I sure hope to hell it does but I'm leaning towards continuation of bear market behavior till this next October-November.
הערה:
since BTC has been acting as a risk on asset similar to tech stocks, I believe it's highly likely it would follow the traditional markets down in a recession which could extend the bear market. I still think a turn around of this downtrend is less likely to happen until at least October-November