Could BNB retracement initiate Bitcoin bull run?
Hello traders,
Looking at the daily chart for BNBBTC, there was a monstrous rally since November last year despite Bitcoin bear breakout.
I expect BNBBTC should retrace very soon as RSI is in oversold condition, and MACD is starting to curl downward. Unfortunately there are no supports from 20K to 25K satoshi, so it will most likely retraces 0.5 Fibonacci level in the span of weeks or months. There will be few macro-swing trade in each fib level.
Historically speaking, when BNBBTC goes down, BTC price goes up as indicated in yellow box regions.
The rational of this trend is:
1) BTC dominance goes up when there is BTC bull run. Therefore, people sell their altcoins because BTC is still a safe haven.
2) BNB traders accumulated enough BNB, so they will use those profit to make more profit. Hence, the money flows in Bitcoin.
There is currently a bull flag formation in bitcoin, so BNBBTC retracement coincide with Bitcoin bull flag will most likely trigger another big move in bitcoin.
Happy trading!
Looking at the daily chart for BNBBTC, there was a monstrous rally since November last year despite Bitcoin bear breakout.
I expect BNBBTC should retrace very soon as RSI is in oversold condition, and MACD is starting to curl downward. Unfortunately there are no supports from 20K to 25K satoshi, so it will most likely retraces 0.5 Fibonacci level in the span of weeks or months. There will be few macro-swing trade in each fib level.
Historically speaking, when BNBBTC goes down, BTC price goes up as indicated in yellow box regions.
The rational of this trend is:
1) BTC dominance goes up when there is BTC bull run. Therefore, people sell their altcoins because BTC is still a safe haven.
2) BNB traders accumulated enough BNB, so they will use those profit to make more profit. Hence, the money flows in Bitcoin.
There is currently a bull flag formation in bitcoin, so BNBBTC retracement coincide with Bitcoin bull flag will most likely trigger another big move in bitcoin.
Happy trading!
הערה:
הערה:
As expected, BNBBTC pair start to retracing, as it is currently at 23.6% Fib level. I wonder how market will react to this.
I feel like we need bearish confirmation before the retracement, aka bearish divergence. But in case 23.6% fib level does not hold, looking to enter 38.2% fib level.
I feel like we need bearish confirmation before the retracement, aka bearish divergence. But in case 23.6% fib level does not hold, looking to enter 38.2% fib level.
הערה:
I start to have some bearish feeling now. If Bulls don't show up soon, we will have Bart move in next 48 hours. In the daily chart, we see that Ichimoku is thinning, and if Bulls don't capitalize this opportunity, I have to play with bears.
We are also getting huge Ichimoku support cloud in 4 hour chart. This is literally the best setup for bulls, and I will be very concerned if we don't have bullish breakout. In case of bearish breakout, my next stop loss is 3580 followed by 3550. Another scenario that I can see is the sideway movement until it reaches to the orange line and bullish breakout from brown bull flag and orange treandline, which is more powerful. Just a thought.
We are also getting huge Ichimoku support cloud in 4 hour chart. This is literally the best setup for bulls, and I will be very concerned if we don't have bullish breakout. In case of bearish breakout, my next stop loss is 3580 followed by 3550. Another scenario that I can see is the sideway movement until it reaches to the orange line and bullish breakout from brown bull flag and orange treandline, which is more powerful. Just a thought.
הערה:
Ah so disappointing. Bitcoin and alt-coins were doing so well this morning, and it seemed like we were gonna have bull-flag breakout. However, it was rejected at the bull flag upper trendline once again, with somewhat significant large volume.
I gave some thoughts on this and I have few theories of why this happened
1) What I mentioned in the previous comment. We will probably see few more days of sideway movements, followed by breakout from both bull flag and orange trendline. Now it is Friday, so it is more logical to have more sideway movement because of the low volume during the weekend
2) I wonder if this was the final bear's attempt for Bart move. This was actually the perfect time for Bart-move because everyone is frustrated on the next Bitcoin move, and bearish breakout before the weekend may accelerate the bearish sentiment into the weekend. It seems like it failed so far though. Alts and Bitcoin did not suffer significant loss yet.
I know this is frustrating for both bulls and bears, but we will eventually have very volatile move soon. I think we may see some big move in circle region.
I gave some thoughts on this and I have few theories of why this happened
1) What I mentioned in the previous comment. We will probably see few more days of sideway movements, followed by breakout from both bull flag and orange trendline. Now it is Friday, so it is more logical to have more sideway movement because of the low volume during the weekend
2) I wonder if this was the final bear's attempt for Bart move. This was actually the perfect time for Bart-move because everyone is frustrated on the next Bitcoin move, and bearish breakout before the weekend may accelerate the bearish sentiment into the weekend. It seems like it failed so far though. Alts and Bitcoin did not suffer significant loss yet.
I know this is frustrating for both bulls and bears, but we will eventually have very volatile move soon. I think we may see some big move in circle region.
הערה:
Last update before next analysis:
We see potential higher low in the bull flag, which is a sign of bullish momentum.
The upper bull flag trendline was rejected again, but the bounce was not significant, which kind of telling me that breakout may be imminent. Breakout rarely happens during weekend, but it is a possibility. Many short position opened again, without price follow through. Come on bulls, squeeze shorters!
We see potential higher low in the bull flag, which is a sign of bullish momentum.
The upper bull flag trendline was rejected again, but the bounce was not significant, which kind of telling me that breakout may be imminent. Breakout rarely happens during weekend, but it is a possibility. Many short position opened again, without price follow through. Come on bulls, squeeze shorters!
I see a lot of people talking about Bart-Simpson move recently because it has been repeated multiple times in past few months. Usually, when people are expecting Bart move, the market will go the other way to short squeeze them.
Identifying next target is a little bit tricky because there are just way too many resistance levels ahead. However, I do have few target levels in mind and I will slowly cash out my profit in those levels:
1) 3755
2) 3800
3) 3885
4) 3941
5) 4000 (Target: there is a 100 DMA)
What I find in past few major moves is that it always happens on Thursday or Friday. I think the reason behind this is to have sideway movement during weekend, so institutional investor can make bear/bull decision during the weekdays. I listed all Friday in the chart just for the thought.