BTC Update - Volume analysis and 3 Scenarios

28 ביוני 2022

On the 4h chart we can establish that we are in neutral territory. Oscilators are low, MAs are neutral and we are blocked in a VPVR range that has a low of 20.4k and a high of $21160.

The last 4 candles have a low ATR and therefore we do not have much room to trade.

Due to the fact that the candle -2 was a doji and it was engulfed we can assume with around 80% certainty that we will go for the POC level($21160) at least for a retest.

We also have two demand zones on the 4h tf

-Low demand zone is situated between 19.1k and 19.5k
-High demand zone between 17.9k and 18.2k

The positives:

Since our last low @ 17.4k we have firned a V shape reversal that has since stayed in an uptrend(Higher Highs , Higher Lows), we do not necessarily need to look for shorts.

Scenarios:

1 - Test POC then back to the orderblock formed by the engulfed doji then break the previous high.

2 - Test POC then back out of the range to around 0.38 Fib(0.618 symmetry) then back in the range with some good volume

3 - Head down to 0.5 Fib / Breaker zone and wick down into the low supply/0.618 Fib


Volume analysis:

Ever since the V shape reversal we have seen very little and inconsistent institutional volume, and if we look at the way the volume candles are plotted we can see that sellers are more organized and consistent. The volume analysis favors scenario 3 for now but it can be invalidated IF we get a market opening spike.

Remember - Institutional(High Volume) is ment to take the price to a certain level.

Stay tuned for more updates!