A bullish case for BTC
I'm neither bullish nor bearish for BTC at the moment - but if I HAD to choose, I'd lean bullish. To say that there are no bullish scenarios here is just wrong - be careful what the masses tell you, they are the dumb money.
Most falling 'pizza shapes' or falling wedges people chart are not actually falling wedges. They don't have confirmed support/resistances (less than 3 touch points) and the volume doesn't align. A falling wedge should have increasing volume. BTC DOES, clearly.
We have S/R flipped, using previous resistance as support now. If this breaks down, we'll see further downside action, sure. But why is everyone so negative? Think of the amount of people just waiting to buy in right now, but they're waiting for 2k, 4k, 6k. Those are the idiots with thousands of twitter followers who eventually claim that they got in at the bottom, but FOMOed in far later than you.
Just to summarise - I'm NOT saying BTC will jump here. I'm just presenting a very clear bullish case. There are counter arguments (but if people start showing you elliot waves, punch them for me). If we break this setup, we are going into the 7s for sure.
And perhaps the most likely outcome is that we range around for a few months between 7 and 9k, particularly in the range formation being set up right now on the chart (in yellow). This could form a ground support. Fundamentals at the moment support this. Miners are exiting the market slowly as the halvening approaches, so there is increased selloff as that BTC changes hands to institutions who are longing the market (but they are not buying the spot price obviously).
COUNTER ARGUMENT: The RSI and MACD are neutral and the moving averages are sad looking - which makes me neutral. In fact we just crossed down (death cross) the 100/200d, which is not great, but remember that MA crossovers can fake out just like any indicator - in fact they're highly likely to do it in a bull market, which we are IN - anyone who tells you we are in a bear trend right now doesn't know how to chart, we are up 2-300% since january.
Most falling 'pizza shapes' or falling wedges people chart are not actually falling wedges. They don't have confirmed support/resistances (less than 3 touch points) and the volume doesn't align. A falling wedge should have increasing volume. BTC DOES, clearly.
We have S/R flipped, using previous resistance as support now. If this breaks down, we'll see further downside action, sure. But why is everyone so negative? Think of the amount of people just waiting to buy in right now, but they're waiting for 2k, 4k, 6k. Those are the idiots with thousands of twitter followers who eventually claim that they got in at the bottom, but FOMOed in far later than you.
Just to summarise - I'm NOT saying BTC will jump here. I'm just presenting a very clear bullish case. There are counter arguments (but if people start showing you elliot waves, punch them for me). If we break this setup, we are going into the 7s for sure.
And perhaps the most likely outcome is that we range around for a few months between 7 and 9k, particularly in the range formation being set up right now on the chart (in yellow). This could form a ground support. Fundamentals at the moment support this. Miners are exiting the market slowly as the halvening approaches, so there is increased selloff as that BTC changes hands to institutions who are longing the market (but they are not buying the spot price obviously).
COUNTER ARGUMENT: The RSI and MACD are neutral and the moving averages are sad looking - which makes me neutral. In fact we just crossed down (death cross) the 100/200d, which is not great, but remember that MA crossovers can fake out just like any indicator - in fact they're highly likely to do it in a bull market, which we are IN - anyone who tells you we are in a bear trend right now doesn't know how to chart, we are up 2-300% since january.
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