Crypto Alpha Report (January 3)

Good Friday to you, friends! As we head into the first weekend of the New Year, I want to focus on our bottom line and goals for 2025 - growing our wealth.

If you’re reading this, I’m going to assume that you’re not lounging on a beach in the Bahamas with millions in the bank, feeling set for the rest of your life with your most significant problem: how to structure your inheritance. I’m going to assume that, in one way or another, you’re focused on the grind and ‘making it.’

To that end, when we turn our eyes to our portfolios this year, we must constantly remind ourselves of the age-old adage: ‘Nobody ever went broke taking profits.’

From 2021 to 2024, I round-tripped Ampleforth (AMP), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), Blockstack (STX), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC). As you know, I’m perfectly fine round-tripping Bitcoin and have held onto my sats since I began buying in 2016. The others, however, I look back and wish I had that capital freed up for my trading strategy or traditional markets over that period.

On December 5th, I sold 50% of all of my altcoin holdings, as they had appreciated significantly then. Despite 2025 being poised to be a tremendous year of growth for my portfolio, I saw an opportunity to cash out and took it.

As we embark on what might be an epic 2025, it’s important to remember that you’re not married to any of your investments. You don’t know the project's developers, you’re not an early-stage investor, and the only thing you stand to gain from the project's success is a greater ROI. DON’T GET EMOTIONALLY ATTACHED!

Remember why you entered the game in the first place - to grow your wealth rapidly. Not to become a mouthpiece for a token project or adopt a new religion. Put your faith in God and not in your project’s timeline, and focus on your prosperity.

It can be challenging psychologically and emotionally to press the red button in a booming market when prices are very high. The greed kicks in after a big green candle, and a swirl of emotions and thoughts starts racing through your head. Especially when you look at the USD number in your portfolio and imagine what it would look like after a few more big greenies.

It can be extremely challenging, if not impossible, to objectively determine to take profit when it is most advantageous. Your mind becomes your enemy, not your friend. This is why setting realistic goals and practical profit targets is paramount BEFORE you enter a position, not after. No target, no trade. No signal, no trade.

Do the work necessary to have a strategy, not a hope and a prayer that your random buy will go up. You can’t control the market, but you can control your actions.

Here’s to a bright New Year!

Crypto Market Update

Stablecoin Dominance


This metric has moved down 0.5% so far since the daily opening. It's not a lower low yet, so we remain within the consolidation range of the attempted breakout (panic selling). So far, I am optimistic about market continuation.

Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance


It's playing out perfectly. Breaking down from its slight consolidation after another Lower High, currently making a new Lower Low. This is perfect for altcoin continuation.

Altcoin Price Performance Relative to Bitcoin

It is another strong day for altcoins, continuing to outperform Bitcoin’s price performance. Mirroring BTC+STables Dom., this breakout will be confirmed on a strong close and continuation into the weekend.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin put in a strong Daily Close yesterday, signaling potential strength to this bounce back. Caution is warranted, as we are still in the first ‘Bull Trap’ zone, but Daily Momentum and Meso Momentum continue pushing to the upside.

Trends

5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Neutral
D: Bullish
W: Bullish

Bitcoin has regained bullish momentum on every timeframe save for the 4H. So far, this is still just a Lower High, and price action is very similar to December 24 - 25th, where Bitcoin gave us the ‘Santa Rally’ and then swept back down to our current lows. However, Bitcoin has put in three distinct bottoms at $92,000, and the fundamentals align with a bullish early January into Trump’s inauguration.

Key Levels

POC: $95,563
VWAP: $96,641
Value Area Low: $94,489 - $95,424
Value Area High: $97,412 - $98,391
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $97,982 - $99,078
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $93,465 - $94,737

Bitcoin showed rejection yesterday at $97,500 - $97,600 as it entered a Low Volume Node. Currently, price has pulled back to yesterday’s VWAP high and is pushing back into that LVN with rising volume and bullish momentum. Price is expected to move to our next Liquidity Zone Above at $98,537.

Strategy:

Continue to hold longs accumulated at or below ~$95,000. If price retraces, look for long entries between $94,800 - $95,400 with targets of $97,100 - $98,500.

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