ביטקויןשורט
Forever Bull Market? No!
Hello traders, I am glad to share my long term view of Bitcoin in this post. Although I used to post technical analysis for swing trades, it is interesting to leave my long-term view here so I could review my thoughts few years later just like what I did when I first started trading in 2018.(tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ft4QYOTH-Long-Term-Elliot-Wave-Market-sentiment/) Now I have a deeper understanding of crypto market and I wish to share my idea with you.
Bitcoin has been in a bull run for more than ten years. I do not believe the bull run would continue for few reasons:
1) Technically, the long-term support did not hold anymore, and the Bitcoin price is currently traded below the support line. It indicates a trend reversal signal that Bitcoin is entering a bear market and it will last for years. But indeed, there are chances that the support line might be wrongly drawn.
2) The macro-economic outlook does not look good. The Fed is continuously rising the interest rates to fight the inflation problem. As a result, it is likely that US will be in a recession in the upcoming years, which leads to global recession. People might want to hold more cash to sustain their lives during the huge recession cycle by selling their Bitcoin/ Cryptos to turn their unrealized profits into realized profits. They will also turn their crypto portfolio into the more liquid asset class like US treasuries which provides 4%+ risk free annual return. This will lead to a liquidity crisis of crypto market that pushes Bitcoin's price down.
3) The crypto hypes are approaching an end which is driven by the inflated altcoin market caps. During the bull market, people FOMO bid the altcoins and neglect the fact that the currency price is mainly driven by demand and supply. In the upcoming years, there will be only more and more VC positions being unlocked and will be dumped for profit-taking. The altcoin project teams also need to dump their coins to sustain the operations and project development including paying their own salaries and the continuing operation expenses. If you take a look to the Coinmarketcap, there are gaps between the current market cap and the fully diluted market cap for the majority of altcoins. Over time, the supply will massively increase. How about the demand? It is a vicious cycle since no investors want to be the exit liquidity of VCs and the project teams. Just like the investors in stock market always be alert to the potential share dilution problem of a profitable company, not to mention the unsuccessful companies (or crypto projects). Eventually, the entire crypto market would be dead, including Bitcoin. The market need time to digest the massive selling pressure. We have experienced 4000 days of bull run, and it is reasonable to assume at least 2000 days of bear market in which the market sentiment will be worse than what we experienced last year (2022).
Leave your thoughts below and discuss! Don't forget to follow me if you want to get my latest swing trade ideas!
Bitcoin has been in a bull run for more than ten years. I do not believe the bull run would continue for few reasons:
1) Technically, the long-term support did not hold anymore, and the Bitcoin price is currently traded below the support line. It indicates a trend reversal signal that Bitcoin is entering a bear market and it will last for years. But indeed, there are chances that the support line might be wrongly drawn.
2) The macro-economic outlook does not look good. The Fed is continuously rising the interest rates to fight the inflation problem. As a result, it is likely that US will be in a recession in the upcoming years, which leads to global recession. People might want to hold more cash to sustain their lives during the huge recession cycle by selling their Bitcoin/ Cryptos to turn their unrealized profits into realized profits. They will also turn their crypto portfolio into the more liquid asset class like US treasuries which provides 4%+ risk free annual return. This will lead to a liquidity crisis of crypto market that pushes Bitcoin's price down.
3) The crypto hypes are approaching an end which is driven by the inflated altcoin market caps. During the bull market, people FOMO bid the altcoins and neglect the fact that the currency price is mainly driven by demand and supply. In the upcoming years, there will be only more and more VC positions being unlocked and will be dumped for profit-taking. The altcoin project teams also need to dump their coins to sustain the operations and project development including paying their own salaries and the continuing operation expenses. If you take a look to the Coinmarketcap, there are gaps between the current market cap and the fully diluted market cap for the majority of altcoins. Over time, the supply will massively increase. How about the demand? It is a vicious cycle since no investors want to be the exit liquidity of VCs and the project teams. Just like the investors in stock market always be alert to the potential share dilution problem of a profitable company, not to mention the unsuccessful companies (or crypto projects). Eventually, the entire crypto market would be dead, including Bitcoin. The market need time to digest the massive selling pressure. We have experienced 4000 days of bull run, and it is reasonable to assume at least 2000 days of bear market in which the market sentiment will be worse than what we experienced last year (2022).
Leave your thoughts below and discuss! Don't forget to follow me if you want to get my latest swing trade ideas!
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