BTC - French Fries and Gravy - and the Biotech Rare Extended Top
מעודכן
Nothing about trading markets is easy. But overall the market has remained in a correction (explained below) and has been very volatile making it almost impossible to predict. This is why I mentioned last week and again emphasized just 19 hours ago, why risk swing trading in volatile markets? Batten down the hatches, long term core holdings is all we are long in. Yes maybe a daytrade if the setup was right, but these are monitored trades which allow exiting quickly so you can SWAN!
Waking up this morning I had a flashback of the movie super trooper Super Troopers. "Where you headed boys?" "To Canada for french fries and gravy sir". " Well, You almost made it!". We mentioned over a week ago that if $4750 broke $6000 was the next target level. Well "we almost made it". This morning I actually expected to wake up to $6000+. Last night at dinner I was thinking, maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm missing the next run, maybe I should just buy!. I'm sitting in a Brazilian Steakhouse and all I can think of is "i'm missing out" every one is posting long charts and I'm still posting short. The whole conversation among us guys was Bitcoin 10k 100k it was a real FOMO dinner! So I looked at my charts after getting home for where confirmation would be either way. The emotion of FOMO was so strong I almost went contrarian and shorted before going to bed. But back to what we said yesterday. To volatile for swing trading and I want to SWAN.
So where are we?
Long Term - The usual. Just HODL - but we MAY get another chance to add as this COULD be a rare blow off top. On the right the two charts show BTC' currently and the IBB' bubble. Great comparison. Biotech was a game changer in the medical industry, just like crytpos is to bartering. Let's compare levels and patterns to see if we can determine if BTC' is doing the same here and get some insight.
Bulls
The lower left chart (ibb') shows the extension of the ABC' correction where everyone thought it had peaked, but then continued to a blowoff top. IBB' failed to break the 1.618 extension so this is critical for BTC' to break and hold for a bull continuation. Looking at the chart above you can see this level is $6229. This level breaks and holds the rally will most likely continue. The green arrows show ONE probable path but regardless of the path it must be hold for support. The IBB' also failed to hold the 0.786 correction level after finding resistance at the 0.618 level, and it resumed the long term WXY correction. Looking at BTC' this is the $3642 level.
Bears
A correction to $4768 or $4110 (more likely) could form a bear trap, so be careful. Below $4110 and above $3642, is tricky and we will have to asses at that time, kind of like where we are now. Below $3500 then $2400-$3400 is definitely back in play.
Market
The overall market cap regained most of it's losses, but mainly on the back of BTC'. The market overall formed a double top just shy of the 180 billion high. However the alt-coin market is still down around 20% from it's high. In my opinion the alt-coin market must rally to put the bull back on my chart and until it does we are still in an overall correction cycle. 10 of the 11 coins traded in USD are down today.
Trades
I have not posted many trades recently, and the ones I posted were short term day trades. I would be disingenuous in posting swing trades that I myself have no skin in. I just do not see that the bull market has resumed and have had that position for over a week, to much disagreement and with many valid points (posted respectfully) as to why the bull may have resumed. But I don't board a ship because of a high tide and I don't switch teams because of a losing streak. We are cash heavy and will be looking for fire sales on good quality coins and maybe a few daytrades if setups are there. Today I will be looking for them, and I'm looking at one to add to the Core which I will post about later.
Waking up this morning I had a flashback of the movie super trooper Super Troopers. "Where you headed boys?" "To Canada for french fries and gravy sir". " Well, You almost made it!". We mentioned over a week ago that if $4750 broke $6000 was the next target level. Well "we almost made it". This morning I actually expected to wake up to $6000+. Last night at dinner I was thinking, maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm missing the next run, maybe I should just buy!. I'm sitting in a Brazilian Steakhouse and all I can think of is "i'm missing out" every one is posting long charts and I'm still posting short. The whole conversation among us guys was Bitcoin 10k 100k it was a real FOMO dinner! So I looked at my charts after getting home for where confirmation would be either way. The emotion of FOMO was so strong I almost went contrarian and shorted before going to bed. But back to what we said yesterday. To volatile for swing trading and I want to SWAN.
So where are we?
Long Term - The usual. Just HODL - but we MAY get another chance to add as this COULD be a rare blow off top. On the right the two charts show BTC' currently and the IBB' bubble. Great comparison. Biotech was a game changer in the medical industry, just like crytpos is to bartering. Let's compare levels and patterns to see if we can determine if BTC' is doing the same here and get some insight.
Bulls
The lower left chart (ibb') shows the extension of the ABC' correction where everyone thought it had peaked, but then continued to a blowoff top. IBB' failed to break the 1.618 extension so this is critical for BTC' to break and hold for a bull continuation. Looking at the chart above you can see this level is $6229. This level breaks and holds the rally will most likely continue. The green arrows show ONE probable path but regardless of the path it must be hold for support. The IBB' also failed to hold the 0.786 correction level after finding resistance at the 0.618 level, and it resumed the long term WXY correction. Looking at BTC' this is the $3642 level.
Bears
A correction to $4768 or $4110 (more likely) could form a bear trap, so be careful. Below $4110 and above $3642, is tricky and we will have to asses at that time, kind of like where we are now. Below $3500 then $2400-$3400 is definitely back in play.
Market
The overall market cap regained most of it's losses, but mainly on the back of BTC'. The market overall formed a double top just shy of the 180 billion high. However the alt-coin market is still down around 20% from it's high. In my opinion the alt-coin market must rally to put the bull back on my chart and until it does we are still in an overall correction cycle. 10 of the 11 coins traded in USD are down today.
Trades
I have not posted many trades recently, and the ones I posted were short term day trades. I would be disingenuous in posting swing trades that I myself have no skin in. I just do not see that the bull market has resumed and have had that position for over a week, to much disagreement and with many valid points (posted respectfully) as to why the bull may have resumed. But I don't board a ship because of a high tide and I don't switch teams because of a losing streak. We are cash heavy and will be looking for fire sales on good quality coins and maybe a few daytrades if setups are there. Today I will be looking for them, and I'm looking at one to add to the Core which I will post about later.
הערה
Just some other indicators to look at on the daily.הערה
Nice consolidation trade either way. The RSI is right in the middle, I myself will be looking to either buy or sell out of the box. If you are trading this keep it tight as this is a very mixed market and sentiment shifts quickly. Almost a market on edge. IMHOהערה
A great post from MarcPmarkets! 
ETHUSDהערה
Ooops here is the link
הערה
This is why I use the consolidation box. It's miss miss miss, BINGO. This is how I daytrade. Just one method. but you have to be tight!
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