A reassessment of Bitcoin
I was expecting a drop, but not of this magnitude with this type of price action. This completely negates my last assessment of the bullish triangle, so Bitcoin got me on this one and it hurts. But probabilistically, we cannot always be right. This price action appears to be following price action which was conjecture several months ago when the parabolic pattern was identified.
The Chart:
Currently price action is on support, and because price has dropped to a similar low as the previous lows, this appears to be more of a descending triangle. If this is a descending triangle it is probably likely that we will have another pop in this area to retest the trendline one more. However, there is strong resistance around 10400 so I doubt that it will break through that region to retest the 11200 region (this is denoted by the gold rectangle and the orange arrow). The RSI has broken into the bearish zone and it was foolish of me to believe that it was going to hold this zone. If the support in this region denoted by the light blue line and a green rectangle does not hold, we are likely to go to the price objective of the triangle which is ~8500. Since that Daily RSI has ample room to move down from here, I do believe that ~8500 would be the next logical step. However, the shorter time frames are already showing divergences.
When ignoring the wicks, weekly looks like a double top with a neckline at ~9500 also denoted by a green rectangle. Also ignoring the wicks, the price objective would be 6900 when the wicks are included, we are looking at a price objective that is sub 6000.
Previous Analysis:
Ongoing Analysis:
The Chart:
Currently price action is on support, and because price has dropped to a similar low as the previous lows, this appears to be more of a descending triangle. If this is a descending triangle it is probably likely that we will have another pop in this area to retest the trendline one more. However, there is strong resistance around 10400 so I doubt that it will break through that region to retest the 11200 region (this is denoted by the gold rectangle and the orange arrow). The RSI has broken into the bearish zone and it was foolish of me to believe that it was going to hold this zone. If the support in this region denoted by the light blue line and a green rectangle does not hold, we are likely to go to the price objective of the triangle which is ~8500. Since that Daily RSI has ample room to move down from here, I do believe that ~8500 would be the next logical step. However, the shorter time frames are already showing divergences.
When ignoring the wicks, weekly looks like a double top with a neckline at ~9500 also denoted by a green rectangle. Also ignoring the wicks, the price objective would be 6900 when the wicks are included, we are looking at a price objective that is sub 6000.
Previous Analysis:
Ongoing Analysis:
כתב ויתור
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