BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 6K Break Out. Now What?

20 באוק׳ 2017

BTCUSD update: Price breaks out to the 6k key level. Based on the price extension from the current bullish swing, a reasonable target after the 6k break is the 6220 area, but as prices rises, so does the risk.

I am not one to paint rockets, but the breakout in this market is a sign of strength that should lead to higher prices in the near term. The pullback to the 5240 level was actually a very normal and healthy retracement within the trend. 5314 is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing and the fact that is area held recently means that the bullish momentum is still intact.

Since the 5114 low was put in, price structure pushed off of the support which developed into a higher low around the 5600 area. This means 5485 to 5328 is now the .618 of the minor bullish swing off the 5114 level and is a possible support zone for any minor retrace that may occur off the 6k level.

If you measure the price extensions from the 5114 low, the 1.0 appears around the 6220 area. This is the more conservative target that I am eyeing in terms of extensions. Based on this structure, this level would present a good place to lock in some profit if you are holding a position. Locking in some profit means selling a small percentage of your holdings to reduce risk and capitalize on the strength while it is present. As the saying goes, "Sell when you can, not when you have to."

Also in order for this run to sustain itself, the 6114 level needs to be compromised. If it is not, then this market is more vulnerable to a significant retrace sooner than most will expect. This is based on a conservative price extension where breakouts often fail if they cannot push beyond this point in a timely manner. In my opinion, the favorable volume spike should help price push through.

Why is this price action at 6K not extreme? The first time price pushed up into the 5920 area, it got there without any significant retrace. This time, it came from a retrace of a projected trend support level, and retested the high and broke out (along with a volume spike). Since it is coming from higher lows (5240 and 5600), this is just a normal trend continuation breakout that now has some room to run (in contrast to pushing highs without any consolidation or test of support).

What about buying now? No way. Buying highs is always a more risky proposition. There may be room to run, but IF price decides to turn back sooner, you will be stuck. That is why I get so bullish on lows as I have in the ETH market. I won't buy highs, but I will buy pull backs when signals appear and criteria lines up at levels that make sense. BTC is now in break out mode which is great for the investors and traders who bought into the pullback, but much riskier for any new longs.

The best place to start looking for a more attractive buying opportunity is the 5485 to 5238 zone. It is a minor support, but in a strong market, any bullish reversal pattern in this area has a much better chance of holding in my opinion. A break below that, and price will be retesting the 5114 low. Those are the prices to be evaluating for new longs.

In summary, the 6k breakout is certainly an amazing and historical event. There will be TONS of hype, rocket painting, and a media frenzy which makes sense because they are in the business of capitalizing on eye balls, but as price action traders and investors, we know better than to get sucked into that. Based on recent market structure, the break out is certainly normal and does imply further strength, with the 6220 area serving as a conservative near term target. Remember, the market is not running away. It will retrace, like it always does and always will and there will be another opportunity to buy into this market at prices that make more sense in terms risk.

Comments and questions welcome.