#BTC - Key levels ahead of Mt. Gox Repayments
Technicals
Key levels from the fib are pretty clear on the daily chart and with the Mt.Gox repayments coming soon its probably wise to get an idea of the fib levels incase they trigger a dump.
Overhead resistance is at 66k (fib 0.618) and local support is at 63.6k (fib 0.5). Below that we have further support at 61.2k (fib 0.382).
These levels coincide with the bull market support band range almost exactly and I think define the range in which we are currently trading.
Macro
Several bullish narratives seem to be bumping up against wider market fear regarding the Mt. Gox repayments which currently is keeping us in a range.
-Musk orange pilling Trump - bullish
-Near certainty on September rate cuts - bullish
-Bullish ETF flows (BlackRock have bought 11BN in BTC in the last month) - bullish
Imminent Mt. Gox Repayments - bearish
Until Mt.Gox actually issues payments we are all guessing its impact.
My plan for trading the Mt. Gox release would be short to $61,250 (range bottom) if we dump. If $61,250 breaks and we lose our range short to $56,521.
The growing bullish narratives might stop a breakdown BUT I'm starting to think that Because the wider picture is so bullish that makes it more likely that we breakdown on Mt.Gox. Whales get a chance to fill their bags before we pump in Q3.
What do you think?
Key levels from the fib are pretty clear on the daily chart and with the Mt.Gox repayments coming soon its probably wise to get an idea of the fib levels incase they trigger a dump.
Overhead resistance is at 66k (fib 0.618) and local support is at 63.6k (fib 0.5). Below that we have further support at 61.2k (fib 0.382).
These levels coincide with the bull market support band range almost exactly and I think define the range in which we are currently trading.
Macro
Several bullish narratives seem to be bumping up against wider market fear regarding the Mt. Gox repayments which currently is keeping us in a range.
-Musk orange pilling Trump - bullish
-Near certainty on September rate cuts - bullish
-Bullish ETF flows (BlackRock have bought 11BN in BTC in the last month) - bullish
Imminent Mt. Gox Repayments - bearish
Until Mt.Gox actually issues payments we are all guessing its impact.
My plan for trading the Mt. Gox release would be short to $61,250 (range bottom) if we dump. If $61,250 breaks and we lose our range short to $56,521.
The growing bullish narratives might stop a breakdown BUT I'm starting to think that Because the wider picture is so bullish that makes it more likely that we breakdown on Mt.Gox. Whales get a chance to fill their bags before we pump in Q3.
What do you think?
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