Possibility of price falling to the White/Aqua lower BBs in 2d.

23 בינו׳ 2021

Looking at the short term TFs in the 6h & 12h the Energy is higher than the Green MA, as a result, we could potentially see a lower low in the 6h, and as the Red RSI has closed below 50 and has closed while making contact with the Green as the Green falls, we have a good chance of the price action going down to the Aqua/Orange Bollinger Bands in the 6h. In the 12h, the Energy is higher than the Green indicating that we are likely to see a lower high in this TF.

In the near term group of TFs (1d, 2d, 3d & 4d)
The daily shows the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA make contact with the Green as it falls while the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA are crossing below 50, indicating a good chance that the price action may go down to the Aqua/Orange lower BBs in the daily. Also as the Blue LSMA has crossed below 50 we are at risk of the BBs expanding and the price action remaining for the most part between the Aqua/Orange as the Bollinger Bands expand.

In the 2d we have closed with the Red RSI below 50, this indicates that there is a good chance we may see the price action descend to the White/Aqua lower BBs in the 2d roughly between $28,386 & $23,769. In the 3d & 4d the sentiment is more bullish with the Green being higher than the Energy suggesting we are likely to see a higher low in these TFs.

This is not financial advice just what I see as possible from the indicators.

Trade safe
aBL

23 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

Short term TFs

23 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

To clarify..
I noticed that the title may be misleading.
I didn't mean in 2 days time, I meant in the 2d timeframe

24 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

In the 6h the Green MA has turned up and the Red RSI has made contact with it while it is rising indicating upward pressure, as expected the price action went up to the BB basis in the 6h. The Green MA has turned down now and the Red RSI has started a potentially downward curve but this can change. The Green is going down in the 90 & 3h and the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it descends in the 90 indicating downward pressure. The Energy is higher than the Green in the 3h, 6h & 12h also indicating downward pressure. From what we see in these timeframes I would conclude that in the 6h we are not currently ready for the prica action to continue above the BB basis (the yellow dotted line). The current indication in the 12h is suggesting that we may see a lower high as we come up. If the Green crosses above 50 we are likely to see the price go up at least to the BB basis but to show a lower high. We need to wait to see if the Blue LSMA and Red RSI can make it above 50 to see if the price action can continue to the White/Aqua upper, this may take a while to play out. This can happen before we see the previously mentioned scnenario play out. We would need to also look at the daily to see if we can close with the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it rises. We are also in a Race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d. We are not likely to see a reversal to sustained upward pressure until the Energy in the 2d CLOSES above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50 - and for confirmation the Green must be higher than the Energy in the 1d, 12h & 6h.

In the scalping group of TFs (6m, 12m, 23m & 45m) we can see that the Green is higher than the Energy in 23m & 45m indicating that if this position remains as the Green comes up, we could potentially see a higher high. However we have to be aware that the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green as it descends and have dropped below 50 in the 23m indicating the price action will sit for the most part between the lower Aqua/Orange BBs and that the BBs are likely to expand, particularly if the Blue LSMA in the 45m drops further toward 50.

So we do nees some time for this to play out and it is possible to potentially see the price action rise before dropping - but the possibility for continued downward pressure is still very present.

These signals are a bit mixed at the moment and various scenarios can play out. It is still my view that this should remain a "Short" however as always one has to seek confirmation before opening a position. And we would also want to look at the short term and scalping group of timeframes to optimise opening of any position.

So currently we are still waiting for confirmation of the next moves..

24 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

In the 45 as mentioned in last update. we were at risk of the Bollinger Bands expanding if the Blue LSMA got closer to 50. The Blue LSMA has now dropped well below 50, currently sitting at 33.43. As a result we can see the BBs expanding and because the Red RSI is significantly below 50, teh price actioin is sitting between the Aqua/Orang BBs as they expand. The further they expand the higher the lower the price can go.
Is it guarranteed that they will expand considerably more?
Not necessarily, however we can get an indication by looking in a higher TF - if we look at the 3h they are currently contracting, which indicates that we may not see excessive expansion in the 45m..
...Unless the Blue LSMA in the 3h continues on its downward trajectory and crosses below 50.
We are at risk of this happening. We can already see that the Energy is higher than the Green in all the short term timeframes - this indicates bearish sentiment. In the 3h, although the Red RSI & Blue LSMA are above 50, they have made contact with the Green as it descends which is bearish - as the Green falls below 50, the price action is likely to sit between the White/Aqua BBs, if the Red RSI also falls below 50 the price can easily fall between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs and if the Blue LSMA also crosses below 50 we are likely to see the BBs expand and the price to drop with it as it remains in the Aqua/Orange lower BBs.

We do however see that the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises in the 45, if we close like this, we should see the Energy cross above 50 in the next candle in approx 20m. But because the Red RSI is below 80, we the price action will not necessarily make it up as far as the BB basis (Yellow dotted line - which is 20 MA)

As the Red RSI is below 50 in the 90, a race has been triggered between the Energy in the 90 & the Red RSI in the 3h. If the Energy in the 90 doesn't CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50, we are not likely to to see a reversal to upward pressure yet but will then have to look at a race between the Energy in the 3h & the Red RSI in the 6h.

For now it is looking like downward pressure is likely to continue.
Trade safe
aBL

25 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

In the 90m, the Green MA is higher than the Energy which is a bullish sign, However the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both made contact with the Green as it descends which indicates downward pressure. But as the Red RSI is above 80, it is unlikely that the Price action will go down as far as the Bollinger Band basis (currently at $32540) on the next wave down. The Green is still above 50 but is heading down toward 50. So in this TF it is likely we will see a higher low. In the 3h & 9h the Energy is higher than the Green which indicates bearish sentiment. But the Green is higher than the Energy in the 6h so slightly mixed signals in short term. The Red RSI is above 50 in the 6h and has made contact with the Green as it rises and the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises in the 12h also the Red RSI is above 20 as the Green has crossed above 50 we could in the 12h see the price action go up to the BB basis currently $34379, but because the BB basis is descending the price level will also descend.
In the 45m the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it descends indicating downward pressure, we are likely to go down to at least the BB basis currently at $32733, however the Red RSI is dangerously close to 50, if it crosses below 50 we can see the price action falling to the White/Aqua lower BBs (currently between $31700 & $32093 but the bands are extracting so these levels are likely to get higher.
In the daily the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green above level 20 as the Green rises indicating upward pressure in this timeframe - we could see price on this or next daily candle go up to BB basis at $35,967 but still a lower high.
As previously stated, in order to see a chance of a reversal to sustained upward pressure in the Near Term group of TFs we need to see the outcome of the race between the 2d & 4d, the Energy in the 2d needs to CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d crosses below 50. In the 2d the Green has turned up, if it continues it is possible that the Red RSI will make contact as it rises - if it closes like this we could see a possibility of the beginning of a reversal, but we still need to see the 2d win the race & to seek confirmation from lower timeframes.
We still have to be very aware that the Green has crossed below 50 in the 4d and the Red RSI is below 80. Also the Red RSI in the 4d has closed making contact with the Green as it falls. Unless we turn up we are still at risk of the price action falling to the BB basis (currently $25755 but rising) If this plays out it is likely to be during this or the next 4d candle which starts in 3d 14h)

As I said previously, it wll take a while for this to play out and this should not be considered as a signal one way or the other.
The purpose of this update is to explain where the market can go based on the dynamics which can change and as such need monitoring.

Trade safe
aBL

Near Term

Short Term

28 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

We are still waiting to see the outcome of the race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d to see if we can reverse to upward pressure.
In the 4d we are waiting to see if we close with the Green below 50. If we do, we are likely to see the price action fall to within proximity of the Bollinger Band basis (yellow dotted line). (currently $25,680 but rising). As previously stated this is going to take a while to play out.
Trade safe
aBL

28 בינו׳ 2021

הערה

Just to add (pasted from original analysis above)
"In the 2d we have closed with the Red RSI below 50, this indicates that there is a good chance we may see the price action descend to the White/Aqua lower BBs in the 2d roughly between $28,386 & $23,769. In the 3d & 4d the sentiment is more bullish with the Green being higher than the Energy suggesting we are likely to see a higher low in these TFs."
This is still in play.
We also have to keep an eye on the Blue LSMA in the 2d as it is getting ever closer to 50. If it does close below 50 we are at danger of the price action going down to the Aqua/Orange BBs - but also the BBs are likely to expand which would result in the price action remaining within the Aqua/Orange lower BBs as they expand...
We need to see the Blue LSMA and red RSI turn back up...