BTC Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 study 27/7/21
מעודכן
A study of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 and comparison to previous distribution.
It is possible that we have entered Phase D of a Wyckoff accumulation - an upthrust following a successful test of the spring from 28.7k (confirmed higher low on lower volume). We may now look for signs of an LPS/BU.
The current move from the test somewhat mirrors 14th - 18th April from the ATH. There have been 3 tests of the RSI extremes on both the accumulation, and looking at the RSI, this is the first time we've managed to reach overbought levels since hanging to the lows. There has been a high level of liquidations during this move upwards, similar to the move down from ATH - this is a sign of strength.
Time duration from PSY to mark down has been overlaid onto the current accumulation for comparison, and as a general target for what would be healthy following an ATH. Not to say that an immediate break up wouldn't be great, however the longer we stay in accumulation, the higher the probability of a larger move to follow.
What we would like to see (and/or):
What we don't want to see:
On-chain metrics still relatively bullish, with ongoing negative funding rates and BTC currently leaving exchanges. Fear/greed index also seems to be bouncing of it's lows.
It is possible that we have entered Phase D of a Wyckoff accumulation - an upthrust following a successful test of the spring from 28.7k (confirmed higher low on lower volume). We may now look for signs of an LPS/BU.
The current move from the test somewhat mirrors 14th - 18th April from the ATH. There have been 3 tests of the RSI extremes on both the accumulation, and looking at the RSI, this is the first time we've managed to reach overbought levels since hanging to the lows. There has been a high level of liquidations during this move upwards, similar to the move down from ATH - this is a sign of strength.
Time duration from PSY to mark down has been overlaid onto the current accumulation for comparison, and as a general target for what would be healthy following an ATH. Not to say that an immediate break up wouldn't be great, however the longer we stay in accumulation, the higher the probability of a larger move to follow.
What we would like to see (and/or):
- DXY to breakdown from current local top, or two stay sideways without printing a higher high.
- A break up of 40k to test the AR and potentially work on an SOS.
- A range between 37.5 - 40k, with the lower bound holding as support and gaining strength for a push to the AR (likely good for alts).
- A bounce from 35 - 35.5k to confirm an LPS.
- RSI to hold and trend above 50.
- Volume to keep increasing.
What we don't want to see:
- DXY to break up and make a higher high (from the current area, it would represent a structural change to direction and continuation of it's run).
- A breakdown from the 35 - 35.5k area. This would be a sign of weakness and builds towards invalidation of the schematic - caution should be used.
- RSI lower than 50 or reaching back to oversold would not be ideal.
On-chain metrics still relatively bullish, with ongoing negative funding rates and BTC currently leaving exchanges. Fear/greed index also seems to be bouncing of it's lows.
הערה
Dynamic resistance currently at confluence of 100 and 200 EMA's on 1D and 200 EMA on 12H:VMC Market Cypher B also showing significant green on both TF, for the first time in quite a while.
הערה
Daily closure above top BB boundary with high volume and expansion occuring:הערה
Following the previous few daily closes above the upper Bollinger Band, it would be healthy to see some sideways consolidation here before a continued push upwards, and to let the overcooked RSI chill a little: הערה
Testing AR, now highly probably to show an SOS between 41.8 - 43.7k:הערה
Local upwards trendline broken, possibilities of continuation to 35 if current demand is subdued, or a range between here to 41.8
הערה
Holding in this 37.5 - 41.8 range for a couple of weeks would be great for alts.הערה
Well well, what's this?? Potential sign of strength? Stay tuned. Beware the current DXY correlation.הערה
Start of Phase E?הערה
SEND IT BABY
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