Bitcoin Logirithmic Retest Still in Play
First chart is the usual one hour linear of Bitcoin on Bitfinex. I have a black upward sloping wedge in here that looks like it’s ready to head downward.
I added in some Bollinger Bands to get a different look and you can see we are at the top of that channel, ready to head lower. The tail is just poking above there on this hourly candle right up to $9,500 level where there is that blue horizontal line with previous resistance, so that could also be a sign price is due to head lower.
That diagonal dark green line heading across the top of the screen is the .618 fibonacci line on the long term pitchfork. I am surprised price has made it here.
RSI is definitely overbought and the peaks are diverging lower from the price, also signaling a lower move. The MACD is hanging in their too, but even that looks like it is leaning to head lower.
The bulls are putting up a strong resistance along that black bottom wedge line, but it feels like a trap. There are way to many sell signals to stay in this trade for now. Unless of course you are HODLing for the long-term, which is awesome as well.
Ok on the daily Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I am getting the same vibes.
I remove the green channel from the other chart and have replaced it with another turquoise rising wedge, once again looking bearish. Obviously we have a few more hours in the day so maybe this is a blow off top and price will come back down into the wedge from $9,350.
I have drawn a zoomed in shot on the RSI of a similar wedge taking place there. I think that the bulls really want to drive this BTC price in to overbought zones on the daily chart here, before taking profits and sparking a pullback.
If the bulls wanted to do that maybe they could drive price up to $9,800 or $10,000 and we are not that far away at this point.
I still like the bearish case of breaking down out of this wedge, retesting the maroon logarithmic downtrend line around $8,400 before moving higher. At least that’s the healthy scenario. If I had some more time I would work in another chart with the Elliot Wave count, also looking bearish.
This breakdown has to happen in the next few days, otherwise if it continues to move sideways price could explode from this prolonged pullback and the pent up demand from the past few months. I think the FOMO would be very real and no one is going want to miss the flight to the moon this time.
I added in some Bollinger Bands to get a different look and you can see we are at the top of that channel, ready to head lower. The tail is just poking above there on this hourly candle right up to $9,500 level where there is that blue horizontal line with previous resistance, so that could also be a sign price is due to head lower.
That diagonal dark green line heading across the top of the screen is the .618 fibonacci line on the long term pitchfork. I am surprised price has made it here.
RSI is definitely overbought and the peaks are diverging lower from the price, also signaling a lower move. The MACD is hanging in their too, but even that looks like it is leaning to head lower.
The bulls are putting up a strong resistance along that black bottom wedge line, but it feels like a trap. There are way to many sell signals to stay in this trade for now. Unless of course you are HODLing for the long-term, which is awesome as well.
Ok on the daily Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I am getting the same vibes.
I remove the green channel from the other chart and have replaced it with another turquoise rising wedge, once again looking bearish. Obviously we have a few more hours in the day so maybe this is a blow off top and price will come back down into the wedge from $9,350.
I have drawn a zoomed in shot on the RSI of a similar wedge taking place there. I think that the bulls really want to drive this BTC price in to overbought zones on the daily chart here, before taking profits and sparking a pullback.
If the bulls wanted to do that maybe they could drive price up to $9,800 or $10,000 and we are not that far away at this point.
I still like the bearish case of breaking down out of this wedge, retesting the maroon logarithmic downtrend line around $8,400 before moving higher. At least that’s the healthy scenario. If I had some more time I would work in another chart with the Elliot Wave count, also looking bearish.
This breakdown has to happen in the next few days, otherwise if it continues to move sideways price could explode from this prolonged pullback and the pent up demand from the past few months. I think the FOMO would be very real and no one is going want to miss the flight to the moon this time.
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