שורט

23k-25k if & hello 13k-15k

מעודכן

Bias: I am overall targeting 15k-13k as next area. But;

- Considering CURRENT price action, I will look for longs around the19.5k-19k zone on light selling retest for short-term long opportunity. Or/and at a break upside the crucial area of 21.2kish for a bullus bias, on sign of strength. -> Which then, I will target the 23k-25k area. But since I am holding a bearish bias overall, I will look around 23k-25k for exhaustion of the relief ( if relief), for shorts opportunities.
* Will carefully examine the move upward unfolding to be sure to be out when the drop is continuing again *

&

- And in the case of no relief unfolding, and selling volume taking over again short term. I will look for -> A break back under 19.5k-19k on heavy selling, would be a sign that the downtrend is resuming with no short term bounce. And I will look for shorts under the 18k-17,5k area & 15k-13k as my next targets.

Daily

Here some notes I took earlier:

Weekly

Monthly

הערה

What's up right now: I am still being prepared for a pamp relief, if there is. I am overall still mega berus. But on the short term I still could expect a pampi to 23k-25k.

Right now I wanna see if the daily will close on selling volume effort, and my target zone to hunt for long entries is 20.5k. BUT, I will look to tp around 21.2k protecting myself, till 21.2k would break on obvious sign of strength and MAINTAIN. From where upside that resistance I will add longs if/at break.

And then ride it to 22.5k, from where I could expect another retest of 21.2k. And long again on light selling.

Going back under 19.5k, and more precisely 18.5k, will make consider that the downtrend is continuing with no relief.

#Observations from the last days.

הערה

Comment: Unless price goes back under 21.7k, I am expecting a touch of 23k-22.8k. And from there I would look for a retracement to 19.5k-20.5k. Where I would look again for longs and another break/ maintain of 21.7k, for a potential ride up to 24k-25k if.

Going back under 21.7k would make me look for a retest of 20k-20.5k and move back up to 23k.

Going back under 19.5k on selling volume will change back my bias to way more bearish.

And here just some nice buy setups the market gave during the last week

Tailing of the daily on the 5th July
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/g1FXQk4x.png

Lot's of signs happened that it was not a scam wick emerging from 19.5k and that in fact it was going for 21.7k
As the filling up of that last wicky after price tested 19.5k
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/SF1PAyuL.png
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/2/2w79gUkx.png

הערה

Expecting another leg down. 17.5 being my next target. Wanna see how it acts around there. Close on berus engulf matching supply +/and break means downtrend resuming. Making 16k-14k the next target. ✅️
- some quick lazy observations update-
P & F getting that 4th O
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/zKO5gbdg.png
weekly

Would need to see selling volume drying up bouncing on support to consider a meaningful recovery up.

הערה

Hi, been expecting a rise to 20.5k-21k. And that was my whys. With the macro being still Hella bearish, I am still aiming at 17k next, and 14k-12k as well. I will look to re-short around 20.5k-21k or/and break under 18.5k.

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

הערה

-> [ been expecting a rise to 20.5k-21k...I will look to re-short around 20.5k-21k...].✅️

Right now expecting a retracement to 19.5k-19.8k… since selling volume have been quite good on last rally down will look around 19.3k as well for weak buying volume and for some more short entries. Still expecting another leg down to 17k.

But also could expect some consolidation between 18k-19k and 21k-22k before a further more drop which will make monitor that short entries along the way even if I get it.

- About the daily, it closed on important selling volume coming in from 20.5k as expected.

Here some more observation on the weekly

and here the current 4 hrs chart I be using

הערה

'' Right now expecting a retracement to 19.5k-19.8k… since selling volume have been quite good on last rally down will look around 19.3k as well for weak buying volume and for some more short entries'' ✅️ ( got the retracement up and move back down from there to 19k)

for then another move up from where i was expecting the wiggle wiggle

will update further more soon

הערה

consider a move up to 20k ish as long as 19k holds , and will look for shorts around there on weakness.

about that last weekly close

and current chart.

הערה

-> '' consider a move up to 20k ish as long as 19k holds , and will look for shorts around there on weakness.'' ✅️ BUT, no sign of weakness currently, so.

sorry for my dirty charts. Potential conditions for a move up to 21k-21.4k ish, if short term buying coming in maintains. What I am looking next for is a break upside 20.2k-20.4k on strength.

4 hours observation

More testing around 19.7k could happen before a break of 20.2k-20.4k, but current price reaction kinda looknig good and worthen to monitor.

And if all of this don't maintains, and it all get absorbed right back by sellers. Well the plan remain the same to look for shorts around 20k-19.8k.

הערה

Price failed to show the capacity to go over 20.4k. So '' And if all of this don't maintains, and it all get absorbed right back by sellers. Well the plan remain the same to look for shorts around 20k-19.8k. '' is the still the scenario to look for ''

Current chart.

הערה

What’s up, hope everyone been making nice profit into the wiggly range.As stated in the last update, as long as price holds upside 18.8k, I expect ranging to the right. And for me to aim at higher than 20.4k, I need to see a break upside the area on strength. Have not been updating lately since it’s been a game of rinse and repeat. With longing of 18.8k-19k and taking tp at 20k-ish. Which price has been Hella predictable as shown here on a chart I’ve been using for the prediction of the last move up to 20.4k.

-> Chart from the 16th Oct. With exact follow through of every move.

Here daily chart from today

🎯

---- As for now, What's up---

I do expect rejection down from 20.4k-20.2k, as it has been already showing on the daily. But since we shall read price and not predict, I wanna see how price will move down back to 19.4k-19.6k, and if it will give some same kind of price action as the first week of October.
So the way to deal with this price action remains the same;
- Looking for shorts around 20.4k-19.8k on weakness &/or at break under 18.5k-18k on major selling. = hello 16k-17k area. Which is still my main medium term bias.
BUT, could have a test of 21.5k before doing so, considering how the current monthly is looking, so.
- Break upside 20.4k on maintained strength = hello 21.5k. ( then if it would ever give a bullish close at the 21.5k area on major demand. I would consider higher.

הערה

here a even more clear of how I am handling this range for now exactly.

- PLAN as for right now; short scalp to 19.5-19.6/ then on selling weakness catch a long to 20k-20.4k AND hold that long and add at break upside 20.4k on strength. For a bull bias to 21.5k. ( and then see how it would acts at 21.5k)

As for a bears bias ( selling volume dominance emerging ) - > short scalp to 19.5k-19.6k, and if it goes there on important selling volume emerging, will take profit and look for a retest of 19.8k-20k on weakness to re-short and ride back down to 19k-18.8k ish. ( holding these shorts if mega selling volume keep emerging and break under 18.8k-18k)

הערה

{ Oct 25 - Looking for shorts around 20.4k-19.8k on weakness &/or at break under 18.5k-18k on major selling. = hello 16k-17k area. Which is still my main medium term bias.
BUT, could have a test of 21.5k before doing so, considering how the current monthly is looking.} = ✅️ well it did give 21.2k, then a nice short, but hey, I am expecting another move up again around 21.5k-22k for another test. And again, my plan is to look for some crunchy shorts around there.
-> - So a break upside 21k = hello 21.5k-22k and weakness sign getting there will make me consider shorts
-> Break back under 20k = 19.5k ish & wanna see on what type of volume it goes there
a) on selling rejection toward the upside = will look for longs
b) on heavy selling with close at 19.5k = will look for a retracement back up to 20k-20.2k ish ( or higher depending) for shorts

Chart I be using right now & something important to notice

Daily

Weekly

October Monthly close🎃
[ image]

הערה

Nov 1
''[...] but hey, I am expecting another move up again around 21.5k-22k for another test '' ; -> 21.5k ✅️

now:

long opportunity to go for 21.8-22k

הערה

- Got 21.5k, and another test of 22k for another short would have been fun, but the same rule have been the same the whole month which is 20.2k not holding = down. Which it did & still did an amazing expected move-

Nov 1 ''hey, I am expecting another move up again around 21.5k-22k for another test. And again, my plan is to look for some crunchy shorts around there. ''✅️

Which this previous posted on the 1st Nov was saying it all on the smaller term about what's next

______________________________________
Now, what's up.
I am looking for a retest around 18k, where I plan to look for some long to scalp to 19.5k-20k, and then look for shorts around there.

- Break upside 18.6k would be a sign that it is going for 19.5k, as well as 17.5k-18k rejecting to with candles wicking to the upside.

BUT, if it gives a full engulfing bear close at 17.5k, I am aiming at 16k directly.

( The next target, and the same since the beginning of this idea, had been 16k-15k and is still. )

- 4 hrs chart

Daily

Weekly
As for the weekly, well I do expect a close right around here ( 18k ), unless if we go straight to 16k before it, but we still only Wednesday, so will update further more about weekly and what's up later on.

Wishing everyone a good trading week and lots of fun.

הערה

Been a long time before I updated this idea. So we went straight for 16k.
And since then, did had some charts about that 18k rejection/retest that was an absolute crunchy entry, and the one it gave today at 17.4.

Heres what ive been working with the last 2 months, and also some notes/analyze of how I expected the 18k close/short.

for then -> ✅️ ( 18.4k was a even more crunchy entry. Selling interest came in and absorbed the push upside for slamming it back under 18k, and close there. = inability for price to push higher + selling interest

here's some note I took back then afterward. I often talk that one of the first question to ask when looking at a chart -> What is the last candle/reaction on the macro, that is currently affecting the most the market structure? and is it still doing so? ( rinse repeat of that update I made on the 8th November 22 for catching the 21.5k perfectly)

Now if we talk about more recent stuffs.
Here my chart from 9 days ago.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/Dll1D26C.png
and here it goes, 17.4k rejected gracefully✅️

and about how I knew it was the most probable scenario to happen.

and for a more even basic point, we are into the retracement of a LL.

As for next, what's up.

Well, the yearly close is a huge bearish. But besides that, the last monthly is important, and did close on selling interest. Still expecting another leg down. Needs a 15.8k ish break on selling volume for confirmation. As beside that, I do think 17.4k-18k is a good zone to stash shorts.

( something that could happen, that would make me consider higher. Is a fill up of the 18.4k wick with buying volume for a start.

Here something I am looking for next. ( possible consolidation to the right)

. And happy new year !

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

after the main target being 23k-25k if & hello 13k-15k that went ✅️ and 85% of the short term call that did hit target as well, officially closing this idea after 6 months.

Expecting a consolidation between 16k & 25k ish, I still think 13k is not out of the cards, even if it goes for a wick on there only.
Market been giving a nice push to 23k, and I am considering 24k-25k next. But would need further more lack of supply to consider a bottom.

And on this, good luck

bibsz

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