#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls delivered and we traded back to above 71000, just to be rejected the 5th time now. Can bulls do it again and break above or will enough of them give up and we see a bigger leg down to 56000? I don’t know, neither do you or anybody else. Don’t get fooled by anyone telling you he/she knows. We are playing a game of probabilities and if-then statements. Right now mine goes as follows,
if bears break below 68400, we will see 67000ish again and there market decides if it wants to do a bigger leg down or stay at the highs.
if bulls break above 70000 again, I don’t think the bear trend line will hold a 6th time and we will retest 73800 and probably print a new ath.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66500 - 72000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls want to stay above 68000 and finally break above the bear trend line and retest the ath. They are still above the daily ema and the bull trend line lives but they need to trade up only from here or we break below.
Invalidation is below 67000.
bear case: Bears are doing the minimum required and rejecting bulls above 70000/71000. So they keep selling the highs but their current follow through is just not there. Last time we were above 70000 in March, market tried 3 times to stay above 70000 before breaking down to 56537. If bears do not break below the small bull trend line and the daily ema soon, I don’t think they will prevent the bulls from getting a new ath. If they get a big bear breakout below 68000, we could see bulls finally giving up and we could be in a W1 of the new bigger bear trend down to 50000 or lower. My preferred short term path is the red ABC correction.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral between 68000 - 69000, bullish above 69000 for 71000 where I will watch closely how strong the move is and if they could try to go for 73000 or higher.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added the 5-wave series and two-legged correction.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
bull case: 67600 is do or die for bulls. When this bull trend line breaks, their chances of another leg up are becoming very low. If market turns up again with momentum, we can see 70000 again and there market decides if it can try again of reaching higher prices. So far bulls were rejected 5 times above 70000.
comment: Bulls delivered and we traded back to above 71000, just to be rejected the 5th time now. Can bulls do it again and break above or will enough of them give up and we see a bigger leg down to 56000? I don’t know, neither do you or anybody else. Don’t get fooled by anyone telling you he/she knows. We are playing a game of probabilities and if-then statements. Right now mine goes as follows,
if bears break below 68400, we will see 67000ish again and there market decides if it wants to do a bigger leg down or stay at the highs.
if bulls break above 70000 again, I don’t think the bear trend line will hold a 6th time and we will retest 73800 and probably print a new ath.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66500 - 72000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls want to stay above 68000 and finally break above the bear trend line and retest the ath. They are still above the daily ema and the bull trend line lives but they need to trade up only from here or we break below.
Invalidation is below 67000.
bear case: Bears are doing the minimum required and rejecting bulls above 70000/71000. So they keep selling the highs but their current follow through is just not there. Last time we were above 70000 in March, market tried 3 times to stay above 70000 before breaking down to 56537. If bears do not break below the small bull trend line and the daily ema soon, I don’t think they will prevent the bulls from getting a new ath. If they get a big bear breakout below 68000, we could see bulls finally giving up and we could be in a W1 of the new bigger bear trend down to 50000 or lower. My preferred short term path is the red ABC correction.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral between 68000 - 69000, bullish above 69000 for 71000 where I will watch closely how strong the move is and if they could try to go for 73000 or higher.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added the 5-wave series and two-legged correction.
