BITCOIN Has the ride to $250k started?

20 ביוני

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for the past 3 months (since the March High) but it is no stranger to such consolidation sequences. Since the start of the current Bull Cycle after the November 2022 bottom, consolidations have been the name of the game, as these served as accumulation phases in the absence of stronger corrections.

BTC has in fact seen similar consolidation phases historically during all previous Bull Cycles. Using the 1M RSI (black trend-line) in particular, we can see that the current consolidation, even though it happens on the All Time High (ATH) level, it is very similar to June - August 2020 and June - August 2016. During all those sequences, the 1M RSI peaked and pulled-back aggressively, even though the price was just trading sideways.

On an amazing display of symmetry, all this happened around 81 weeks (567 days) after the Bear Cycle bottom. The fact that the current consolidation is taking place on the ATH level and the two previous didn't, has to do with the fact that:

a) the last Bull Cycle was less aggressive, peaking at 'only' the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level but also because
b) the current Bull Cycle is more aggressive than expected due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF.

As you can see the Fibonacci Channel Up has been very consistent since late 2013, with the 0.0 - 0.236 Fib range serving as the Buy Zone, which is where BTC continues to trade, despite the uptrend, showcasing its enormous upward potential.

The December 11 2017 Top has been on Fib 1.0, the April 2021 on Fib 0.786, so even a mere Fib 0.5 (not even 0.618) contact at the end of the current rally, would push Bitcoin to $250000. Incredible as it may sound, this validates even the scenario of BTC following the less aggressive, recent Channel Up (blue) that started on Dec 2017. A 250k top would make an ideal technical Higher High.

But what do you think? Is 250k as easy as this model shows for Bitcoin during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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