BITCOIN Huge volume signaling the end of the Bear Market?

22 בנוב׳ 2022

Two weeks ago, we saw the strongest weekly volume in more than a year, fueled by the collapse of FTX. This is a good opportunity to historically examine the effect of such huge volume spikes on Bitcoin (BTCUSD).

On this 1W chart, we see that such volume spikes tend to be associated with trend reversals on BTC. In recent price action in particular, we've had a similar volume spike on June 13 2022. Practically same volume spikes between a 5 month period. As this chart shows, volume spikes of such a period or shorter have historically been either Bottom or Top formations.

The previous such volume pattern was between January 11 2021 - May 17 2021 and was the formation of the Bull Cycle Top. The one before was between November 19 2018 - May 13 2019 and was the bottom formation of the Bear Cycle. Before that we've had the Bull Cycle Top formation of the December 18 2017 - February 05 2018 volume spikes. Finally the Bottom formation of the 2014/15 Bear Cycle was made on the January 12 2015 - November 02 2015 spikes.

The latter is the pattern that has the most similarities with the current one (June 13 - November 07 2022) as there is a Lower Highs (Bottom) trend-line involved. Can the November 07 volume spike be the moment that gives the trend reversal to bullish and get Bitcoin out of this two year Bear Cycle or is it simply a short-term rebound at best like the June 13 2022 and February 05 2018 volume spikes?

Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!


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