BTC.USD in "A Tale of Two Fibbies" chapter 2: Bitcoin Fib Zones

26 בנוב׳ 2019

Near term plot of important zones and what they might mean.
So we finally got a good bounce, and it looks to have been "Impulsive".
Impulsive as in "demand" rather than "Corrective" as in just profit taking.

"Impulsive" waves often end at a 4.236 extension (green).
"Elliot Wave" theory says this could be a wave (1) or (A).
(1) as in 1 of 5 going up, (A) as in an ABC correction.

7105-7113 is immediate support, would take very strong bull move to go for new highs from there.
6924-6975 should be strong support, and if tested Bulls want to paint strong bounce from there.
6844-6850 would be the ".618" retracement of a 4.236 wave structure, so average but still bull.

Each fib line alone has a chance to turn the movement, but confluences are more likely to do so.
Observing the price action at each of these zones will offer clues to the strength (or lack thereof).

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Part of my ongoing Bitcoin analysis at every turn (click):

5882 is Critical
8.7k Retrace Target
8.7k Top Call
9k bounce call (perfect bounce)
12.4k Break
10.9k retrace
12k Impulse
12k target call <=Perfect TP
14k > 10k retrace
14k target call <=Perfect TP
10k target call
8.4k > 5.4k retrace
9.0k > 7.5k retrace
7.5k bounce call <=Perfect Entry
10k path laid out
3.1k bottom call (the EXACT bottom)

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

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26 בנוב׳ 2019

הערה

Interesting action around the resistance zones looks like a possible rejection, and probably a lot of traders are thinking "double top".
Market time right now is London Open, and they always SELL first, so surprise on dip.
Lets see how far this comes back.

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26 בנוב׳ 2019

הערה

The purpose of this chart was to evaluate the big picture based on tiny details within this crucial range we are in.

My observations and conclusions are in textboxes in this snapshot

Overall, my sentiment is still 50/50.

The bounce was impressive but we are only back to retesting previous support.
That is often just another step in the continuation of a downtrend.
And since the retest , we are seeing lower highs with of a nature that is worrisome (see notes on chart).

If bulls can get past 7400 and confirm it as support, that changes the picture entirely.
Until that happens, lower lows towards 5882 are possible, and longer we linger below the hard resistance, the higher the chances of going there.

I have my hopes on the 6925-6975 support structure - a test and decisive PING from it would be a great sign for bulls....

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26 בנוב׳ 2019

הערה

Further observations:
Under the microscope we have a new fib wave down it is confirmed by the very clean Pings.

zooming OUT again to the full chart the dark blue 3.618 or 4.236 are most likely end points of this particular wave.
3.618 has been pierced, so it will probably not hold if tested again.
4.236 is almost like a magnet, added to the pile of magnets already in that area.
So once again the 69xx zone becomes a little more prominent.

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27 בנוב׳ 2019

הערה

As feared, another leg down.
Blew right through the thick (but diffuse) support zone.
We got a bounce on the thin zone below, but smacked into the previous floor I suppose $6850 might hold, but probably not for long unless US market buys this today (unlikely due to upcoming Holiday).

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27 בנוב׳ 2019

הערה

Looking under the microscope (1 min) the drop proceeded exactly to the 4.236 and bounced.
But I am expecting it will peter out at Band 2 (if it even gets there).

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